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Mbale Heroes vs Nebbi Central

Uganda Uganda

Big League Mbale Municipal Stadium, Mbale
Mbale Heroes Logo

Mbale Heroes

2 - 1
FT
Nebbi Central Logo

Nebbi Central

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mbale Heroes in this Big League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mbale Heroes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mbale Heroes
15%
Draws
85%
Nebbi Central
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nebbi Central

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Nebbi Central lately — more wins on the board than Mbale Heroes.
  • Win probability leans Nebbi Central's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Big League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Mbale Heroes Clean Sheet 15%
Nebbi Central Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbale Heroes Nebbi Central
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 9
Draws 5 9
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 0.67 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Big League
Nebbi Central vs Mbale Heroes
3:0
Dec 13, 2025 Big League
Mbale Heroes vs Nebbi Central
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbale Heroes 10 / 100
Nebbi Central 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbale Heroes Nebbi Central

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nebbi Central Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nebbi Central let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Difficult form: Nebbi Central registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Mbale Heroes scored in 43% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Mbale Heroes VS Nebbi Central
0.5 Goals Scored 1
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbale Heroes

(Home)
06 Jun
Mbale Heroes
2 : 6
Iganga United
24 May
Blacks Power
4 : 0
Mbale Heroes
17 May
Young Elephant
7 : 0
Mbale Heroes
09 May
Mbale Heroes
0 : 1
Onduparaka
03 May
Nebbi Central
3 : 0
Mbale Heroes
Page 1 of 6

Nebbi Central

(Away)
06 Jun
Nebbi Central
0 : 1
Paidha Black Angels
24 May
Iganga United
3 : 0
Nebbi Central
17 May
Nebbi Central
1 : 1
Catda
10 May
Blacks Power
2 : 1
Nebbi Central
03 May
Nebbi Central
3 : 0
Mbale Heroes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blacks Power 30 16 7 7 35:18 55
2 Ntugasaze 30 14 11 5 42:22 53
3 Kataka 30 16 3 11 40:26 51
4 Kigezi HomeBoyz 30 14 9 7 36:22 51
5 Paidha Black Angels 30 15 7 8 33:23 50
6 Bunyaruguru 30 12 7 11 31:25 43
7 Young Elephant 30 12 6 12 44:40 42
8 Kiyinda Boys 30 12 6 12 40:31 40
9 Iganga United 30 11 5 14 30:33 38
10 Catda 30 9 10 11 24:32 37
11 Kaaro Karungi 30 10 8 12 26:30 36
12 Onduparaka 30 9 9 12 24:32 36
13 Nebbi Central 30 9 9 12 35:42 34
14 Bright Stars 30 7 11 12 25:31 32
15 Wakiso Giants 30 8 7 15 31:48 31
16 Mbale Heroes 30 6 5 19 14:67 17
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