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Mbale Heroes vs Ntugasaze

Uganda Uganda

Big League Mbale Municipal Stadium, Mbale
Mbale Heroes Logo

Mbale Heroes

0 - 0
FT
Ntugasaze Logo

Ntugasaze

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Big League matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Mbale Heroes
15%
Draws
85%
Ntugasaze
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ntugasaze

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ntugasaze lately — more wins on the board than Mbale Heroes.
  • Ntugasaze are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Mbale Heroes Clean Sheet 10%
Ntugasaze Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbale Heroes Ntugasaze
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 6 13
Draws 5 8
Losses 19 9
Goals Scored 0.67 1.4
Goals Conceded 2.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 1, 2026 Big League
Mbale Heroes vs Ntugasaze
0:0
Nov 9, 2025 Big League
Ntugasaze vs Mbale Heroes
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbale Heroes 10 / 100
Ntugasaze 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbale Heroes Ntugasaze

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ntugasaze Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 1.50 goals when they meet.

Ntugasaze lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Mbale Heroes's goal record stands at 43% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ntugasaze's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Mbale Heroes VS Ntugasaze
0.63 Goals Scored 1.75
3.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbale Heroes

(Home)
06 Jun
Mbale Heroes
2 : 6
Iganga United
24 May
Blacks Power
4 : 0
Mbale Heroes
17 May
Young Elephant
7 : 0
Mbale Heroes
09 May
Mbale Heroes
0 : 1
Onduparaka
03 May
Nebbi Central
3 : 0
Mbale Heroes
Page 1 of 6

Ntugasaze

(Away)
19 Sept
Vipers
3 : 0
Ntugasaze
08 Sept
BUL
4 : 1
Ntugasaze
02 Sept
Ntugasaze
1 : 3
Maroons
29 Aug
Blacks Power
1 : 0
Ntugasaze
06 Jun
Kiyinda Boys
0 : 3
Ntugasaze
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blacks Power 30 16 7 7 35:18 55
2 Ntugasaze 30 14 11 5 42:22 53
3 Kataka 30 16 3 11 40:26 51
4 Kigezi HomeBoyz 30 14 9 7 36:22 51
5 Paidha Black Angels 30 15 7 8 33:23 50
6 Bunyaruguru 30 12 7 11 31:25 43
7 Young Elephant 30 12 6 12 44:40 42
8 Kiyinda Boys 30 12 6 12 40:31 40
9 Iganga United 30 11 5 14 30:33 38
10 Catda 30 9 10 11 24:32 37
11 Kaaro Karungi 30 10 8 12 26:30 36
12 Onduparaka 30 9 9 12 24:32 36
13 Nebbi Central 30 9 9 12 35:42 34
14 Bright Stars 30 7 11 12 25:31 32
15 Wakiso Giants 30 8 7 15 31:48 31
16 Mbale Heroes 30 6 5 19 14:67 17
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