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Mbeya City vs Gwambina Prediction & H2H Stats

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Kibu D.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 game between Mbeya City and Gwambina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbeya City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Mbeya City
20%
Draws
23%
Gwambina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Mbeya City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Gwambina haven't matched Mbeya City's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Mbeya City a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Mbeya City Clean Sheet 68%
Gwambina Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mbeya City Gwambina
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 10 10
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.9 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.92 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2021 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mbeya City vs Gwambina
1:0
Dec 22, 2020 Ligi Kuu Bara
Gwambina vs Mbeya City
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mbeya City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kibu D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.71
Avg xA / game 0.46

Gwambina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mbeya City 86 / 100
Gwambina 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mbeya City Gwambina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbeya City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mbeya City found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Gwambina has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Mbeya City went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mbeya City VS -
0.63 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Mbeya City

(Home)
12 Sept
Polisi Tanzania
2 : 0
Mbeya City
04 Sept
TRA United
0 : 0
Mbeya City
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2
Mbeya City
23 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 1
Mashujaa
19 Aug
Mbeya City
2 : 0
Dodoma Jiji
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Gwambina

(Away)
18 Jul
Tanzania Prisons
1 : 1
Gwambina
15 Jul
Mbeya City
1 : 0
Gwambina
23 Jun
Gwambina
2 : 0
Dodoma Jiji
18 Jun
Azam
4 : 1
Gwambina
26 May
Namungo
1 : 0
Gwambina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 34 26 5 3 78:14 83
2 Young Africans 34 21 11 2 52:21 74
3 Azam 34 19 11 4 50:22 68
4 Biashara Mara United 34 13 11 10 28:32 50
5 Kinondoni MC 34 13 9 12 39:27 48
6 Polisi Tanzania 34 10 15 9 29:27 45
7 Tanzania Prisons 34 10 14 10 25:25 44
8 Dodoma Jiji 34 11 11 12 28:31 44
9 Namungo 34 10 13 11 24:31 43
10 Mbeya City 34 10 12 12 30:33 42
11 Ruvu Shooting 34 11 8 15 34:38 41
12 Kagera Sugar 34 10 10 14 34:38 40
13 Coastal Union 34 10 10 14 29:46 40
14 Mtibwa Sugar 34 10 9 15 21:31 39
15 JKT Tanzania 34 11 6 17 34:47 39
16 Gwambina 34 8 11 15 29:37 35
17 Singida Black Stars 34 9 8 17 22:41 35
18 Mwadui 34 5 4 25 24:69 19
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2021/2022 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2021/2022 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2020/2021 (Relegation)