Sport Picks
Melbourne City vs Buriram United F.C.
Asia
AFC Champions League 2025/2026 AAMI Park, Melbourne 
Match Events
13'
13'
Causic G.
32'
32'
Vidmar A.
37'
37'
Bissoli
Assist: Schindler K.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this AFC Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Buriram United F.C.
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Buriram United F.C. have won more games recently than Melbourne City.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Buriram United F.C. taking it.
- Buriram United F.C. arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Buriram United F.C., who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 18%
Buriram United F.C. Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Melbourne City | Buriram United F.C. |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 21 |
| Draws | 9 | 3 |
| Losses | 10 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.17 | 1.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 10, 2026 AFC Champions League
Buriram United F.C. vs Melbourne City
1:0
Mar 3, 2026 AFC Champions League
Melbourne City vs Buriram United F.C.
1:1
Oct 21, 2025 AFC Champions League
Melbourne City vs Buriram United F.C.
2:1
Nov 8, 2023 AFC Champions League
Melbourne City vs Buriram United F.C.
0:1
Oct 25, 2023 AFC Champions League
Buriram United F.C. vs Melbourne City
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Melbourne City Compare
Top Goalscorer Mazzeo B.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Buriram United F.C. Compare
Top Goalscorer Bissoli
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Melbourne City 28 / 100
Buriram United F.C. 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Melbourne City Buriram United F.C.
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BUR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Melbourne City found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Melbourne City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Buriram United F.C. has conceded goals in 53% of their last 30 outings.
Scoring Trends
Melbourne City VS Buriram United F.C.
2 Goals Scored 1.5
1.17 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
83% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Melbourne City
(Home) 26 Jul
Weston Workers Bears
0 : 3 Melbourne City
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1 Melbourne City
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
18 Apr
Brisbane Roar
2 : 3 Melbourne City
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Melbourne City
1 : 2 Adelaide Utd
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
07 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 1 Central Coast
04 Apr
Melbourne City
3 : 0 Western Sydney Wanderers
03 Mar
Melbourne City
1 : 1 Buriram United F.C.
Page 1 of 3
Buriram United F.C.
(Away) 26 Jul
Pathum United
0 : 3 Buriram United F.C.
31 May
Buriram United F.C.
1 : 0 Prachuap
27 May
Buriram United F.C.
2 : 1 Selangor
20 May
Selangor
0 : 1 Buriram United F.C.
17 May
Buriram United F.C.
5 : 0 Ayutthaya United
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Pathum United
0 : 3 Buriram United F.C.
20 May
Selangor
0 : 1 Buriram United F.C.
06 May
Johor DT
1 : 3 Buriram United F.C.
02 May
Port MTI FC
3 : 1 Buriram United F.C.
29 Apr
Rayong FC
3 : 0 Buriram United F.C.
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Al Hilal3
Al-Sadd4
Vissel Kobe3
Seoul1
Al Ahli SC1
Al-Duhail0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2
Johor DT3
Machida Zelvia1
Gangwon0
Al Ittihad1
Al Wahda0
Buriram United F.C.2
Melbourne City1
Tractor0
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai3
Quarter-finals
Al-Sadd3
Vissel Kobe4
Al Ahli SC2
Johor DT1
Machida Zelvia1
Al Ittihad0
Buriram United F.C.2
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai3
Semi-finals
Vissel Kobe1
Al Ahli SC2
Machida Zelvia1
Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai0
Final
Al Ahli SC1
Machida Zelvia0
