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Mensajero vs Murcia Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Copa Federacion
Mensajero Logo

Mensajero

Wed, Sep 9, 2026
1 - 2
06:00 PM
Murcia Logo

Murcia

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Barroso Santana M.
(Penalty)
90' Event
Bustos A.
113' Event
Meca A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Mensajero
15%
Draws
42%
Murcia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mensajero

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Mensajero lately — more wins on the board than Murcia.
  • Model gives Murcia a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Mensajero have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Murcia, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Mensajero Clean Sheet 18%
Murcia Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mensajero Murcia
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 14
Draws 6 4
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.65 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Copa Federacion
Mensajero vs Murcia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mensajero Compare

Avg xG / game 0.5
Avg xA / game 0.33

Murcia Compare

Top Goalscorer Bustos A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Meca A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mensajero 20 / 100
Murcia 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mensajero Murcia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Murcia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mensajero found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Murcia has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Mensajero has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Mensajero VS Murcia
0.67 Goals Scored 2.13
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
17% Over 1.5 75%
17% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Mensajero

(Home)
27 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0
San Miguel
19 Sept
Anaza
1 : 0
Mensajero
13 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 0
Tenerife C
09 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 2
Murcia
24 May
Mensajero
1 : 0
Tamaraceite
Page 1 of 6

Murcia

(Away)
30 Sept
Navalcarnero
3 : 1
Murcia
19 Sept
Murcia
2 : 1
CE Europa
16 Sept
Orihuela
1 : 4
Murcia
13 Sept
Atl. Madrid B
4 : 0
Murcia
09 Sept
Mensajero
1 : 2
Murcia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Comillas CF 3
L Hospitalet 2
CF Badalona 2
Sestao 3
AD San Juan 0
Terrassa 1
Binefar 1
Porreres 0
Santa Marta Tormes 2
Vimenor 1
Bergantinos 5
Leioa 0
Compostela 1
Derio 2
Salamanca CF UDS 3
Caudal Deportivo 2
Motril 0
Recreativo Huelva 2
Cacereno 2
UD San Pedro 0
Melilla 0
Conil 1
Sporting Ceuta 0
Dos Hermanas 9
Torrent 1
Atletico Saguntino 2
CF Talavera 0
Navalcarnero 2
UD San Fernando 1
Orihuela 3
Mensajero 1
Murcia 2
1/8-finals
Comillas CF 1
Sestao 2
Terrassa 4
Binefar 0
Santa Marta Tormes 1
Bergantinos 0
Derio 3
Salamanca CF UDS 5
Recreativo Huelva 2
Cacereno 1
Conil 1
Dos Hermanas 0
Atletico Saguntino 0
Navalcarnero 4
Orihuela 1
Murcia 4
Quarter-finals
Sestao 4
Terrassa 1
Santa Marta Tormes 1
Salamanca CF UDS 2
Recreativo Huelva 2
Conil 1
Navalcarnero 3
Murcia 1
Semi-finals
Sestao -
Salamanca CF UDS -
Recreativo Huelva -
Navalcarnero -
Final
TBD -
TBD -