Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Merani Tbilisi vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Ghadua N.
84' Event
Vardanidze G.
90' Event
Mamporia A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025 game between Merani Tbilisi and Bakhmaro Chokhatauri finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Bakhmaro Chokhatauri.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Merani Tbilisi
6%
Draws
4%
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Merani Tbilisi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Merani Tbilisi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Merani Tbilisi taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Merani Tbilisi Clean Sheet 15%
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Merani Tbilisi Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 11 2
Draws 8 4
Losses 12 24
Goals Scored 1.5 0
Goals Conceded 2.13 3.5
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 3.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 18, 2025 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
0:3
Apr 17, 2025 Liga 3
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri vs Merani Tbilisi
1:1
Nov 14, 2024 Liga 3
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri vs Merani Tbilisi
0:0
May 23, 2024 Liga 3
Merani Tbilisi vs Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Merani Tbilisi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri Compare

Top Goalscorer Ghadua N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vardanidze G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Merani Tbilisi 84 / 100
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Merani Tbilisi Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Merani Tbilisi scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Merani Tbilisi VS Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
1.5 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 3.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Merani Tbilisi

(Home)
26 Jun
Guria
6 : 1
Merani Tbilisi
21 Jun
Merani Tbilisi
1 : 1
Orbi
14 Jun
WIT Georgia
0 : 1
Merani Tbilisi
28 May
Merani Tbilisi
0 : 2
FC Tbilisi 2025
21 May
Dinamo Tbilisi 2
0 : 1
Merani Tbilisi
Page 1 of 7

Bakhmaro Chokhatauri

(Away)
05 Dec
WIT Georgia
5 : 0
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
28 Nov
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
0 : 2
Shturmi
21 Nov
Dusheti
4 : 1
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
13 Nov
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
2 : 4
Margveti 2006
06 Nov
Didube
5 : 0
Bakhmaro Chokhatauri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Shturmi30217268:2270
2Gori30207358:2867
3Odishi 191930204659:1964
4Dusheti30196579:3563
5FC Tbilisi 202530177659:3258
6WIT Georgia301410664:3252
7Orbi301111858:4044
8Didube301271147:4343
9Merani Tbilisi30881439:5232
10Betlemi Keda30781543:7129
11FC Gardabani30851737:6729
12Margveti 200630771636:7128
13Locomotive Tbilisi 230831943:6827
14Khobi30751835:6326
15Borjomi30651934:6023
16Bakhmaro Chokhatauri30342318:7413
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 (Main)
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2025 (Relegation)