Sport Picks
Merthyr Town vs Beaconsfield Town
England
Southern League Premier South 2023/2024 
Match Events
18'
18'
John A.
27'
27'
Yearwood A.
45'
45'
McElroy T.
AI Match Summary
The Southern League Premier South 2023/2024 game between Merthyr Town and Beaconsfield Town finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Beaconsfield Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
20%
34%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Merthyr Town haven't matched Beaconsfield Town's recent run of results.
- Merthyr Town are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Southern League Premier South 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Merthyr Town have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 10%
Beaconsfield Town Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Merthyr Town | Beaconsfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.55 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 2.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.50 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 13, 2024 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Beaconsfield Town
2:3
Aug 12, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Beaconsfield Town vs Merthyr Town
0:5
Apr 7, 2023 Southern League Premier South
Beaconsfield Town vs Merthyr Town
3:5
Dec 3, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Merthyr Town vs Beaconsfield Town
3:2
Apr 16, 2022 Southern League Premier South
Beaconsfield Town vs Merthyr Town
3:4
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer John A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Twamley L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25
Beaconsfield Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Yearwood A.
1 Goals Assists Leader McElroy T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Merthyr Town 83 / 100
Beaconsfield Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Merthyr Town Beaconsfield Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Merthyr Town Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Beaconsfield Town's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Games between these two average 6.00 goals.
Merthyr Town went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Merthyr Town VS Beaconsfield Town
2 Goals Scored 3
1.13 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Merthyr Town
(Home) 19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
05 Sept
Merthyr Town
2 : 1 Macclesfield
29 Aug
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Chorley
18 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 2 Telford
08 Aug
Merthyr Town
2 : 0 Hednesford
Page 1 of 4
Beaconsfield Town
(Away) 29 Aug
Beaconsfield Town
1 : 2 Sheppey United
01 Aug
Beaconsfield Town
5 : 4 Kingstonian
06 Sept
Fareham
4 : 1 Beaconsfield Town
26 Jul
Bedfont Sports
1 : 3 Beaconsfield Town
22 Jul
Beaconsfield Town
0 : 7 St. Albans
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Fareham
4 : 1 Beaconsfield Town
26 Jul
Bedfont Sports
1 : 3 Beaconsfield Town
07 Sept
Croydon Athletic
1 : 0 Beaconsfield Town
20 Apr
Winchester City
1 : 0 Beaconsfield Town
13 Apr
Poole Town
3 : 0 Beaconsfield Town
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesham | 42 | 28 | 6 | 8 | 83:46 | 90 |
| 2 | AFC Totton | 42 | 23 | 12 | 7 | 89:45 | 81 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 42 | 23 | 10 | 9 | 70:46 | 79 |
| 4 | Gosport Borough | 42 | 23 | 9 | 10 | 75:43 | 78 |
| 5 | Bracknell Town | 42 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 84:71 | 68 |
| 6 | Merthyr Town | 42 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 85:59 | 67 |
| 7 | Walton & Hersham | 42 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 78:67 | 65 |
| 8 | Hungerford | 42 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 77:70 | 64 |
| 9 | Dorchester | 42 | 17 | 9 | 16 | 66:77 | 60 |
| 10 | Hendon | 42 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 70:65 | 58 |
| 11 | Winchester City | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 63:67 | 57 |
| 12 | Basingstoke | 42 | 15 | 8 | 19 | 69:83 | 53 |
| 13 | Poole Town | 42 | 16 | 4 | 22 | 70:76 | 52 |
| 14 | Tiverton | 42 | 14 | 10 | 18 | 64:74 | 52 |
| 15 | Sholing | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 52:63 | 49 |
| 16 | Swindon Supermarine | 42 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 73:92 | 49 |
| 17 | Hanwell Town | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 48 |
| 18 | Plymouth Parkway | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 60:68 | 48 |
| 19 | Beaconsfield Town | 42 | 13 | 9 | 20 | 63:78 | 48 |
| 20 | Hayes & Yeading | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 59:67 | 46 |
| 21 | Harrow Borough | 42 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 60:97 | 39 |
| 22 | Didcot | 42 | 6 | 10 | 26 | 45:94 | 28 |
Promotion - National League South 2024/2025 (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier South 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
