Sport Picks
Match Events
11'
11'
Benedettini F.
29'
29'
Misuraca S.
66'
66'
Alessandrini S.
AI Match Summary
Mezzolara in this Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mezzolara.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
39%
30%
31%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mezzolara
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Sammaurese have won more games recently than Mezzolara.
- 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Mezzolara Clean Sheet 68%
Sammaurese Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mezzolara | Sammaurese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 32 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.30 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 21, 2024 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Sammaurese
3:1
Dec 10, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Mezzolara
1:0
Feb 8, 2023 Serie D - Group D
Mezzolara vs Sammaurese
1:3
Oct 5, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Mezzolara
3:1
May 15, 2022 Serie D - Group D
Sammaurese vs Mezzolara
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mezzolara Compare
Top Goalscorer Benedettini F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Alessandrini S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.65
Sammaurese Compare
Top Goalscorer Misuraca S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mezzolara 41 / 100
Sammaurese 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mezzolara Sammaurese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mezzolara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Sammaurese conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Mezzolara remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Sammaurese lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mezzolara VS Sammaurese
0.6 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 2
60% Over 1.5 100%
40% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Mezzolara
(Home) 20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1 Mezzolara
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1 Ternana
12 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Mezzolara
06 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0 Rondinella
05 May
Mezzolara
1 : 2 SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Mezzolara
2 : 1 Ternana
06 Sept
Mezzolara
0 : 0 Rondinella
05 May
Mezzolara
1 : 2 SCD Progresso
21 Apr
Mezzolara
3 : 1 Sammaurese
14 Apr
Mezzolara
0 : 0 Aglianese Calcio
Page 1 of 3
Sammaurese
(Away) 03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0 Sammaurese
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0 Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0 Sammaurese
12 Apr
Sammaurese
0 : 0 Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 7
03 May
San Marino Calcio
1 : 0 Sammaurese
19 Apr
Ancona
3 : 0 Sammaurese
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0 Sammaurese
22 Mar
Notaresco Calcio
4 : 0 Sammaurese
15 Mar
Fossombrone
2 : 1 Sammaurese
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carpi | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 66:31 | 68 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 56:13 | 66 |
| 3 | Corticella | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 59:40 | 57 |
| 4 | Victor San Marino | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 44:37 | 57 |
| 5 | Lentigione | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 49:31 | 56 |
| 6 | Forli FC | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 48:35 | 55 |
| 7 | Prato | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 37:41 | 44 |
| 8 | Sangiuliano City | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 32:37 | 44 |
| 9 | Fanfulla | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 28:35 | 43 |
| 10 | Sant'Angelo | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 47:44 | 41 |
| 11 | Aglianese Calcio | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 32:39 | 41 |
| 12 | Imolese | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 31:33 | 40 |
| 13 | Sammaurese | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 37:48 | 37 |
| 14 | SCD Progresso | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 27:43 | 37 |
| 15 | San Donnino | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 32:58 | 25 |
| 16 | Certaldo | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Mezzolara | 32 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 23:50 | 21 |
| 18 | Pistoiese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group D 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
