Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Millwall vs Swansea

England England

Championship 2025/2026 The Den, London
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Ivanovic M.
Assist: Taylor C.
47' Event
Cabango B.
Assist: Franco G.
59'
Sub
Yalcouye M. In: Widell M.
Out: Yalcouye M.

AI Match Summary

The Championship 2025/2026 game between Millwall and Swansea finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Millwall.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Millwall
30%
Draws
34%
Swansea
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Millwall

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Swansea haven't matched Millwall's recent run of results.
  • Millwall are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Championship 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Millwall have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Millwall Clean Sheet 20%
Swansea Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Millwall Swansea
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Championship
Millwall vs Swansea
2:1
Sep 27, 2025 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
1:1
Apr 26, 2025 Championship
Millwall vs Swansea
1:0
Oct 26, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
0:1
May 4, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Millwall
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Millwall Compare

Top Goalscorer Ivanovic M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taylor C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Swansea Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabango B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Millwall 36 / 100
Swansea 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Millwall Swansea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Millwall scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Swansea let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Millwall has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Millwall VS Swansea
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Millwall

(Home)
28 Jul
Bromley
1 : 1
Millwall
25 Jul
Stevenage
1 : 0
Millwall
21 Jul
Gillingham
1 : 0
Millwall
17 Jul
Eldense
1 : 2
Millwall
14 Jul
FC Andorra
2 : 1
Millwall
Page 1 of 6

Swansea

(Away)
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0
Swansea
24 Jul
Swansea
2 : 0
Udinese
21 Jul
Swansea
0 : 2
Bochum
18 Jul
Swansea
2 : 2
Holstein Kiel
02 May
Swansea
3 : 1
Charlton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Coventry462811797:4595
2Ipswich462315880:4784
3Millwall4624111164:4983
4Southampton4622141082:5680
5Middlesbrough4622141072:4780
6Hull City4621101570:6673
7Wrexham4619141369:6571
8Derby462091767:5969
9Norwich461981963:5665
10Birmingham4617131657:5664
11Swansea4618101857:5964
12Bristol City4617111859:5962
13Sheffield Utd461862266:6660
14Preston4615151655:6260
15QPR4616102061:7358
16Watford4614151753:6557
17Stoke City4615102151:5655
18Portsmouth4614131949:6455
19Charlton4613141944:5853
20Blackburn4613132042:5652
21West Brom4613141948:5851
22Oxford Utd4611142145:5947
23Leicester4612161858:6846
24Sheffield Wed462123229:890
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)