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Modena vs Empoli

Italy Italy

Serie B Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Magnino L.
27' Event
Yepes G.
41'
Sub
Shpendi S. In: Popov B.
Out: Shpendi S.

AI Match Summary

Modena in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Modena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Modena
15%
Draws
32%
Empoli
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Modena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Empoli haven't matched Modena's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Modena's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Modena Clean Sheet 20%
Empoli Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Modena Empoli
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 6
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.03
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Serie B
Modena vs Empoli
2:1
Jan 31, 2026 Serie B
Empoli vs Modena
0:0
Oct 24, 2025 Serie B
Modena vs Empoli
2:1
Mar 15, 2014 Serie B
Modena vs Empoli
0:0
Oct 5, 2013 Serie B
Empoli vs Modena
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Modena Compare

Top Goalscorer Belotti A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ambrosino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Empoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Yepes G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Modena 76 / 100
Empoli 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Modena Empoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Modena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 7:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Modena scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Empoli conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Modena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Modena VS Empoli
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
38% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Modena

(Home)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
12 Sept
Sudtirol
1 : 1
Modena
06 Sept
Modena
0 : 1
Avellino
28 Aug
Cremonese
0 : 3
Modena
22 Aug
Benevento
1 : 2
Modena
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Empoli

(Away)
20 Sept
Modena
2 : 1
Empoli
11 Sept
Empoli
0 : 1
Arezzo
05 Sept
Carrarese
0 : 1
Empoli
30 Aug
Mantova
3 : 1
Empoli
22 Aug
Empoli
1 : 0
Cremonese
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palermo 5 4 1 0 10:5 13
2 Sudtirol 5 3 2 0 9:3 11
3 Mantova 5 3 2 0 10:5 11
4 Modena 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Ascoli 5 3 1 1 7:4 10
6 Padova 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
7 Benevento 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Verona 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Avellino 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Cesena 5 1 4 0 7:6 7
11 Pisa 5 2 1 2 8:8 7
12 Arezzo 5 2 0 3 6:13 6
13 Empoli 5 2 0 3 4:6 6
14 Entella 5 1 2 2 7:6 5
15 Cremonese 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Vicenza 5 1 2 2 7:10 5
17 Sampdoria 5 1 1 3 5:9 4
18 Juve Stabia 5 1 2 2 4:7 3
19 Catanzaro 5 1 0 4 5:9 3
20 Carrarese 5 0 1 4 2:6 1
Promotion - Serie A 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B (Play Out)