Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montenegro vs Turkey

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Stadion Gradski, Nikšić
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Jankovic M.
29' Event
Krstovic N.
Assist: Tuci M.
37' Event
Yildiz K.
Assist: Kokcu O.

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 game between Montenegro and Turkey finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montenegro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Montenegro
15%
Draws
48%
Turkey
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Turkey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Turkey come out ahead of Montenegro on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Montenegro's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Montenegro Clean Sheet 15%
Turkey Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montenegro Turkey
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 18
Draws 2 3
Losses 15 7
Goals Scored 1.21 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Montenegro vs Turkey
3:1
Oct 11, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Turkey vs Montenegro
1:0
Nov 16, 2021 World Championship
Montenegro vs Turkey
1:2
Sep 1, 2021 World Championship
Turkey vs Montenegro
2:2
Mar 27, 2018 Friendly International
Montenegro vs Turkey
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montenegro Compare

Top Goalscorer Krstovic N.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Turkey Compare

Top Goalscorer Yildiz K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montenegro 48 / 100
Turkey 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montenegro Turkey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Montenegro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Montenegro scored in 68% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Turkey conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Montenegro stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Montenegro VS Turkey
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montenegro

(Home)
05 Jun
Slovakia
2 : 2
Montenegro
01 Jun
Bulgaria
0 : 1
Montenegro
31 Mar
Montenegro
2 : 3
Slovenia
27 Mar
Montenegro
2 : 0
Andorra
17 Nov
Montenegro
2 : 3
Croatia
Page 1 of 6

Turkey

(Away)
26 Jun
Turkey
3 : 2
USA
20 Jun
Turkey
0 : 1
Paraguay
14 Jun
Australia
2 : 0
Turkey
06 Jun
Venezuela
1 : 2
Turkey
01 Jun
Turkey
4 : 0
North Macedonia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Czech Republic 6 3 2 1 9:8 11
2 Ukraine 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Georgia 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Albania 6 2 1 3 4:6 7
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League B/C)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League C)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 England 6 5 0 1 16:3 15
2 Greece 6 5 0 1 11:4 15
3 Ireland 6 2 0 4 3:12 6
4 Finland 6 0 0 6 2:13 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League B/C)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League C)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norway 6 4 1 1 15:7 13
2 Austria 6 3 2 1 14:5 11
3 Slovenia 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
4 Kazakhstan 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League B/C)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League C)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wales 6 3 3 0 9:4 12
2 Turkey 6 3 2 1 9:6 11
3 Iceland 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
4 Montenegro 6 1 0 5 4:9 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League B/C)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League C)