Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montevideo City vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Rodriguez S.
9' Event
Ramirez S.
35'
Silvera F.

AI Match Summary

Maldonado in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Montevideo City
33%
Draws
40%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Maldonado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Montevideo City average 1.88 goals a game right now, well clear of Maldonado's 1.75.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Maldonado taking it.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Montevideo City Clean Sheet 16%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montevideo City Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.88 1.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
2:4
Mar 24, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Montevideo City
1:0
Feb 8, 2024 Copa Uruguay
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
2:0
Nov 29, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Montevideo City vs Maldonado
5:1
Apr 30, 2023 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Maldonado vs Montevideo City
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montevideo City Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pizzichillo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Cesar R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montevideo City 28 / 100
Maldonado 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montevideo City Maldonado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Montevideo City scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Maldonado let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Montevideo City has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montevideo City VS Maldonado
1.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montevideo City

(Home)
24 Jul
Montevideo City
1 : 0
Danubio
11 Jul
Juventud
1 : 3
Montevideo City
04 Jul
Bahia
4 : 1
Montevideo City
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Albion
1 : 2
Montevideo City
Page 1 of 6

Maldonado

(Away)
18 Jul
Progreso
1 : 0
Maldonado
10 Jul
Maldonado
1 : 1
Albion
06 Jun
Montevideo City
2 : 4
Maldonado
31 May
Maldonado
3 : 0
Club Nacional
24 May
Wanderers
1 : 1
Maldonado
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Penarol64119:313
2Cerro Largo63217:211
3CA Cerro63035:89
4Liverpool M.62225:58
5Central Esp.62224:48
6Racing Montevideo61413:37
7Boston River61235:95
8Defensor Sp.60334:83
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wanderers633010:412
2Montevideo City640211:912
3Maldonado632112:611
4Club Nacional63126:710
5Juventud62138:117
6Progreso62045:96
7Albion61234:65
8Danubio60333:73
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)