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Monticelli vs Vastese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018
Monticelli Logo

Monticelli

3 - 1
FT
Vastese Logo

Vastese

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Monticelli in this Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Monticelli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Monticelli
15%
Draws
39%
Vastese
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Monticelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Vastese have won more games recently than Monticelli.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Monticelli Clean Sheet 20%
Vastese Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monticelli Vastese
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 5 9
Draws 13 8
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 0.7 0.94
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 0.99
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2018 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Vastese
3:1
Oct 15, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Monticelli
2:1
Jan 22, 2017 Serie D - Group F
Monticelli vs Vastese
0:0
Sep 18, 2016 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Monticelli
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monticelli 32 / 100
Vastese 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monticelli Vastese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vastese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Vastese conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.75 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Monticelli remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Vastese lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Vastese
0 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Monticelli

(Home)
06 May
ASD Francavilla
2 : 1
Monticelli
29 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 0
Castelfidardo
22 Apr
Agnonese
6 : 0
Monticelli
15 Apr
Monticelli
1 : 1
Nerostellati Pratola
08 Apr
Fabriano Cerreto
1 : 2
Monticelli
Page 1 of 6

Vastese

(Away)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vis Pesaro 34 23 4 7 61:29 73
2 Matelica 34 22 5 7 66:28 71
3 Avezzano 34 16 14 4 51:26 62
4 Pineto 34 15 12 7 53:41 57
5 Aquila Calcio 34 15 10 9 57:40 55
6 ASD Francavilla 34 14 11 9 47:38 53
7 San Marino Calcio 34 15 6 13 45:35 51
8 Vastese 34 15 6 13 55:50 51
9 Sangiustese 34 13 9 12 39:41 48
10 Campobasso 34 13 10 11 41:40 45
11 Castelfidardo 34 12 8 14 43:54 44
12 Recanatese 34 12 7 15 47:47 43
13 Agnonese 34 11 8 15 34:35 41
14 Notaresco Calcio 34 11 7 16 42:51 40
15 Jesina 34 8 10 16 32:46 34
16 Monticelli 34 5 15 14 25:45 30
17 Fabriano Cerreto 34 5 5 24 29:69 20
18 Nerostellati Pratola 34 3 9 22 19:71 18
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2017/2018 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2017/2018 (Play Offs)