Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Montichiari vs Caravaggio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2014/2015
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Caravaggio in this Serie D - Group B 2014/2015 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caravaggio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Montichiari
30%
Draws
58%
Caravaggio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Caravaggio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Caravaggio lately — more wins on the board than Montichiari.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Caravaggio taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2014/2015 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Montichiari Clean Sheet 19%
Caravaggio Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montichiari Caravaggio
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 1 7
Draws 2 6
Losses 27 18
Goals Scored 0.73 1.19
Goals Conceded 2.8 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.30
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2015 Serie D - Group B
Caravaggio vs Montichiari
3:0
Sep 21, 2014 Serie D - Group B
Montichiari vs Caravaggio
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montichiari 28 / 100
Caravaggio 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montichiari Caravaggio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caravaggio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Caravaggio conceded in 84% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Montichiari found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Montichiari remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Caravaggio
0 Goals Scored 1.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Montichiari

(Home)
10 May
Montichiari
2 : 2
Folgore Caratese
03 May
MapelloBonate
4 : 1
Montichiari
26 Apr
Montichiari
0 : 1
Ciserano
19 Apr
Pergolettese
2 : 1
Montichiari
12 Apr
Montichiari
1 : 2
Villafranca
Page 1 of 6

Caravaggio

(Away)
17 May
Caravaggio
2 : 3
Ciserano-Bergamo
04 May
Caravaggio
0 : 3
Luparense FC
27 Apr
Real Calepina
0 : 1
Caravaggio
17 Apr
Caravaggio
0 : 0
Brusaporto
13 Apr
Brian Lignano
2 : 2
Caravaggio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Castiglione 36 22 8 6 54:26 74
2 Lecco 36 19 9 8 65:42 66
3 Seregno Calcio 36 20 5 11 64:37 65
4 Ciserano 36 17 9 10 53:39 60
5 Virtus Verona 36 15 14 7 58:34 59
6 Pergolettese 36 15 10 11 46:44 55
7 Olginatese 36 15 9 12 44:34 54
8 Ponte San Pietro 36 14 10 12 50:42 52
9 Ciliverghe Mazzano 36 14 9 13 37:40 51
10 Sondrio 36 15 6 15 46:50 51
11 Aurora Seriate 36 14 8 14 42:43 50
12 Inveruno 36 13 10 13 47:48 49
13 Villafranca 36 12 11 13 44:49 47
14 MapelloBonate 36 12 11 13 36:48 47
15 Pro Sesto 36 13 8 15 38:41 47
16 Caravaggio 36 11 8 17 37:42 41
17 Folgore Caratese 36 7 16 13 34:40 37
18 Castellana 36 7 9 20 36:61 30
19 Montichiari 36 1 2 33 26:97 5
Promotion - Serie D - Winners stage 2014/2015 (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Serie D - Play Offs (Main)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2014/2015 (Play Out)