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Stadium Background

Montijo vs Puebla de la Calzada

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Montijo play Puebla de la Calzada in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Montijo averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Puebla de la Calzada averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, Montijo won 2, Puebla de la Calzada won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Montijo and 1.06 for Puebla de la Calzada. This points to a Montijo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Montijo
35%
Draws
26%
Puebla de la Calzada
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Montijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Montijo picked up more points recently compared to Puebla de la Calzada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Montijo Clean Sheet 22%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montijo Puebla de la Calzada
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 12 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.23 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Puebla de la Calzada
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Montijo
1:1
Jan 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Montijo
0:0
Sep 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montijo vs Puebla de la Calzada
0:0
Aug 14, 2024 Club Friendly
Montijo vs Puebla de la Calzada
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montijo Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurado J. M. G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montijo 40 / 100
Puebla de la Calzada 25 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montijo Puebla de la Calzada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Montijo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.8%
2.78
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Montijo attacking → ← attacking Puebla de la Calzada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montijo scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Puebla de la Calzada let in goals in 94% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Montijo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Puebla de la Calzada lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 34
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722