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Montpellier W vs St Etienne W Prediction & H2H Stats

France France

Premiere Ligue Women 2025/2026 Stade Bernard Gasset Terrain n°7, Montpellier
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Rouquet J.
Assist: Torrent M.
49'
Kadzere R.
55'
Sub
Istocki N. In: Ali Nadjim N.
Out: Istocki N.

AI Match Summary

The Premiere Ligue Women 2025/2026 game between Montpellier W and St Etienne W finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montpellier W.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Montpellier W
35%
Draws
45%
St Etienne W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: St Etienne W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Montpellier W's 1.33 goals per match outpaces what St Etienne W have produced (1).
  • Model gives St Etienne W a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Montpellier W Clean Sheet 16%
St Etienne W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Montpellier W St Etienne W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.33 1
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premiere Ligue Women
Montpellier W vs St Etienne W
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Premiere Ligue Women
St Etienne W vs Montpellier W
4:2
Aug 29, 2025 Club Friendly Women
St Etienne W vs Montpellier W
1:1
Mar 16, 2025 Premiere Ligue Women
Montpellier W vs St Etienne W
1:0
Nov 23, 2024 Premiere Ligue Women
St Etienne W vs Montpellier W
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Montpellier W Compare

Top Goalscorer Rouquet J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

St Etienne W Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Montpellier W 19 / 100
St Etienne W 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Montpellier W St Etienne W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick St Etienne W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

St Etienne W has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Montpellier W's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Montpellier W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Montpellier W VS St Etienne W
1.63 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Montpellier W

(Home)
03 Oct
Nantes W
1 : 1
Montpellier W
19 Sept
Montpellier W
0 : 0
Marseille W
12 Sept
Saint-Malo W
1 : 0
Montpellier W
05 Sept
Montpellier W
5 : 1
Toulouse W
29 Aug
Montpellier W
0 : 3
Marseille W
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St Etienne W

(Away)
26 Sept
St Etienne W
2 : 0
Nantes W
20 Sept
Bourges 18 W
0 : 3
St Etienne W
13 Sept
St Etienne W
1 : 1
Le Mans W
06 Sept
Thonon Evian W
1 : 1
St Etienne W
22 Aug
St Etienne W
4 : 2
Roubaix W
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 OL Lyonnes W 22 19 3 0 76:11 60
2 Paris FC W 22 15 3 4 46:16 48
3 PSG W 22 15 2 5 48:26 47
4 Nantes W 22 12 5 5 42:34 41
5 Fleury 91 W 22 9 6 7 27:21 33
6 Dijon W 22 9 6 7 21:28 33
7 Strasbourg W 22 7 5 10 26:38 26
8 Le Havre W 22 5 6 11 25:45 21
9 Marseille W 22 5 4 13 26:44 19
10 Montpellier W 22 4 3 15 28:45 15
11 Lens W 22 4 3 15 20:50 15
12 St Etienne W 22 3 4 15 11:38 13
Promotion - Premiere Ligue Women 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Seconde Ligue Women (Main)