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Monza vs Juve Stabia

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Mota D.
42'
Delli Carri F.
46'
Sub
Maistro F. In: Zeroli K.
Out: Maistro F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Monza advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Monza
30%
Draws
29%
Juve Stabia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Monza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Monza carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Monza are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Monza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Monza, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Monza Clean Sheet 68%
Juve Stabia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Juve Stabia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 7 12
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.9 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Juve Stabia
2:1
May 16, 2026 Serie B
Juve Stabia vs Monza
2:2
Feb 15, 2026 Serie B
Monza vs Juve Stabia
2:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie B
Juve Stabia vs Monza
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Cutrone P.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Juve Stabia Compare

Top Goalscorer Burnete R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 59 / 100
Juve Stabia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Juve Stabia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Juve Stabia has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Solid form: Monza remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Juve Stabia
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
18 Sept
Monza
2 : 1
Sassuolo
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Torino
0 : 1
Monza
29 Aug
Monza
2 : 3
Udinese
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Juve Stabia

(Away)
18 Sept
Juve Stabia
1 : 1
Cesena
12 Sept
Vicenza
1 : 1
Juve Stabia
06 Sept
Juve Stabia
0 : 3
Pisa
29 Aug
Sampdoria
1 : 2
Juve Stabia
23 Aug
Palermo
1 : 0
Juve Stabia
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Monza -
TBD -
Modena 0
Juve Stabia 1
Palermo -
TBD -
Catanzaro 3
Avellino 0
Semi-finals
Monza 4
Juve Stabia 3
Palermo 2
Catanzaro 3
Final
Monza 2
Catanzaro 2