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Monza vs Napoli - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A U-Power Stadium (Brianteo), Monza
Wed, Oct 28, 2026
1 - 4
07:45 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Goglichidze S.
10' Event
Hojlund R.
Assist: Di Lorenzo G.
17'
Sub
Lobotka S. In: Gilmour B.
Out: Lobotka S.

AI Match Summary

Monza host Napoli in the Serie A. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Napoli have shipped 1.19 goals a game lately, while Monza have conceded 1.64 and scored 1.96. Past meetings favor Napoli slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 19, 2025, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.75 xG vs 1.81) point toward Napoli. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Monza
20%
Draws
51%
Napoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Napoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Napoli have won more games recently than Monza.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Monza Clean Sheet 11%
Napoli Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Monza Napoli
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.96 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.64 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2025 Serie A
Monza vs Napoli
0:1
Sep 29, 2024 Serie A
Napoli vs Monza
2:0
Apr 7, 2024 Serie A
Monza vs Napoli
2:4
Dec 29, 2023 Serie A
Napoli vs Monza
0:0
May 14, 2023 Serie A
Monza vs Napoli
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Monza Compare

Top Goalscorer Varela G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Hojlund R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Politano M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Monza 29 / 100
Napoli 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Monza Napoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Monza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Monza's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Napoli has conceded goals in 63% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Monza stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Monza VS Napoli
2 Goals Scored 1.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Monza

(Home)
23 Oct
Torino
3 : 2
Monza
19 Oct
Monza
4 : 0
Cagliari
11 Oct
Lazio
3 : 1
Monza
03 Oct
Brest
2 : 2
Monza
26 Sept
Monza
2 : 3
Cremonese
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Napoli

(Away)
24 Oct
Napoli
3 : 3
AS Roma
20 Oct
Napoli
4 : 3
Bodo/Glimt
17 Oct
Venezia
1 : 0
Napoli
13 Oct
Villarreal
3 : 1
Napoli
10 Oct
Napoli
3 : 0
Frosinone
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 9 8 1 0 22:7 25
2 Inter 8 7 1 0 23:10 22
3 AS Roma 9 6 3 0 23:8 21
4 Como 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
5 AC Milan 8 5 3 0 16:7 18
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17:13 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11:8 14
8 Torino 9 4 1 4 14:14 13
9 Cagliari 9 4 1 4 8:13 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13:10 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9:14 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Sassuolo 9 2 2 5 14:22 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15:18 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6:13 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9:18 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9:19 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5:15 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6:17 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)