Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Moquegua vs ADA Jaen

Peru Peru

Liga 2 2025 Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Granda J.
9' Event
Rodriguez F.
56'
Sub
Lasso C. In: Ruiz K.
Out: Lasso C.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Moquegua advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Moquegua
15%
Draws
59%
ADA Jaen
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: ADA Jaen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Moquegua carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Moquegua have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Moquegua, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Moquegua Clean Sheet 21%
ADA Jaen Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Moquegua ADA Jaen
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 14
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2025 Liga 2
Moquegua vs ADA Jaen
2:1
Nov 22, 2023 Copa Peru
ADA Jaen vs Moquegua
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Moquegua Compare

Top Goalscorer Chavez N.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

ADA Jaen Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Moquegua 32 / 100
ADA Jaen 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Moquegua ADA Jaen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ADA Jaen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Moquegua scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: ADA Jaen conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Moquegua remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Moquegua VS ADA Jaen
0.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Moquegua

(Home)
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2
Sporting Cristal
05 Sept
Cusco
2 : 0
Moquegua
30 Aug
Moquegua
1 : 4
Alianza Atl.
27 Aug
AD Tarma
2 : 0
Moquegua
22 Aug
Sport Huancayo
0 : 2
Moquegua
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ADA Jaen

(Away)
13 Sept
ADA Jaen
1 : 0
Union Comercio
05 Sept
Cesar Vallejo
0 : 1
ADA Jaen
16 Aug
U. San Martin
3 : 1
ADA Jaen
08 Aug
ADA Jaen
0 : 0
Llacuabamba
02 Aug
Carlos Mannucci
2 : 0
ADA Jaen
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Moquegua 2
ADA Jaen 1
Union Comercio -
TBD -
Comerciantes FC 0
Cesar Vallejo 1
TBD -
FC Cajamarca -
Semi-finals
Moquegua 3
Union Comercio 2
Cesar Vallejo 0
FC Cajamarca 3
Final
Moquegua 2
FC Cajamarca 3