Sport Picks

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Mortagua FC vs Uniao Da Serra

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

60' Event
Pereira T.

AI Match Summary

Mortagua FC in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mortagua FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Mortagua FC
44%
Draws
20%
Uniao Da Serra
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Uniao Da Serra haven't matched Mortagua FC's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 21%
Uniao Da Serra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Mortagua FC Uniao Da Serra
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 13
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 0.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 1 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Uniao Da Serra
1:0
Aug 17, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs Mortagua FC
0:0
Feb 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs Uniao Da Serra
3:3
Oct 23, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Uniao Da Serra vs Mortagua FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mortagua FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Uniao Da Serra Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mortagua FC 37 / 100
Uniao Da Serra 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Mortagua FC Uniao Da Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UNI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Mortagua FC scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Uniao Da Serra has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Mortagua FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Mortagua FC VS Uniao Da Serra
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Mortagua FC

(Home)
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Electrico FC
12 Apr
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Mortagua FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
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Uniao Da Serra

(Away)
18 Apr
Samora Correia
4 : 2
Uniao Da Serra
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
2 : 0
Uniao Da Serra
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vitoria Sernache26167333:1255
2Oliveira Hospital26148439:1350
3Naval 189326146636:2348
4SB Castelo Branco26144843:2646
5Uniao Da Serra26128638:2744
6Mortagua FC26116923:2639
7Os Marialvas261061033:2836
8Fatima26881027:2932
9Lajense26881037:3732
10GD Peniche26861234:4330
11Samora Correia26851327:3529
12Marinhense26591220:3824
13Electrico FC26541733:6219
14SC Lusitania26451724:4817
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)