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Motril vs Marbelli

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Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026
Motril Logo

Motril

0 - 0
FT
Marbelli Logo

Marbelli

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 game between Motril and Marbelli finished 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Motril
35%
Draws
41%
Marbelli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Marbelli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Marbelli come out ahead of Motril on wins alone.
  • Marbelli are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Motril Clean Sheet 22%
Marbelli Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Motril Marbelli
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 13
Draws 13 8
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.3 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Marbelli
0:0
Nov 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Motril
1:1
Feb 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Marbelli vs Motril
0:0
Sep 22, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Motril vs Marbelli
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Motril 29 / 100
Marbelli 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Motril Marbelli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marbelli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Motril found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Marbelli let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Motril stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Motril VS Marbelli
0.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Motril

(Home)
20 Sept
Malaga Juniors
1 : 2
Motril
13 Sept
Motril
1 : 1
Torre del Mar
09 Sept
Motril
0 : 2
Recreativo Huelva
05 Sept
Huetor Vega
0 : 0
Motril
07 Jun
Motril
1 : 1
Arenas Armilla
Page 1 of 6

Marbelli

(Away)
20 Sept
Huetor Vega
1 : 3
Marbelli
13 Sept
Marbelli
2 : 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
05 Sept
Mancha
1 : 1
Marbelli
10 May
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
0 : 2
Marbelli
03 May
Marbelli
0 : 1
Granada CF B
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mijas Las Lagunas 34 19 9 6 46:24 66
2 Motril 34 18 11 5 55:29 65
3 Torre del Mar 34 14 13 7 37:26 55
4 Arenas Armilla 34 15 9 10 38:29 54
5 Churriana de la Vega 34 14 10 10 32:40 52
6 Marbelli 34 14 9 11 36:28 51
7 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 34 13 11 10 39:38 50
8 UD San Pedro 34 13 10 11 39:37 49
9 Atletico de Porcuna 34 14 4 16 41:39 46
10 Huetor Vega 34 12 9 13 43:42 45
11 Granada CF B 34 10 14 10 49:47 44
12 CD Alhaurino 34 11 10 13 41:41 43
13 Melilla B 34 9 12 13 30:32 39
14 Mancha 34 9 10 15 30:38 37
15 Huetor Tajar 34 9 10 15 40:44 37
16 Martos 34 9 10 15 32:48 37
17 CD Torreperogil 34 9 6 19 24:45 33
18 El Palo 34 6 9 19 28:53 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 2025/2026 (Play Offs)