Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Manungu Stadium

Pamba

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mtibwa Sugar play Pamba in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Pamba averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Mtibwa Sugar won 1, Pamba won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 18, 2026 ended 4:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Mtibwa Sugar and 1.81 for Pamba. This points to a Pamba double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%

Mtibwa Sugar

28%

Draws

40%

Pamba

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Pamba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Mtibwa Sugar picked up more points recently compared to Pamba.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 11%

Pamba Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mtibwa Sugar	Pamba
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	6	9
Draws	9	8
Losses	15	13
Goals Scored	0.83	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.6	1.2
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Pamba vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 47% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

4:0

Jan 25, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Pamba

Possession: 56% - 49% Cards: 0 - 2

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Muhenga T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Pamba Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mtibwa Sugar 31 / 100

Pamba 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mtibwa Sugar Pamba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pamba or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +33.4%

4.17

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mtibwa Sugar attacking → ← attacking Pamba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtibwa Sugar scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Pamba let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Mtibwa Sugar went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Pamba lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 35

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9