Sport Picks
Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle
Ecuador
Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista, Ambato 
Match Events
19'
19'
Reasco D.
Assist: Pata E.
35'
35'
Sornoza J.
Assist: Loor L.
44'
44'
Flor F.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Pro game between Mushuc Runa and Independiente del Valle finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Independiente del Valle.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
24%
35%
41%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Independiente del Valle
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Independiente del Valle come out ahead of Mushuc Runa on wins alone.
- 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 18%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Mushuc Runa | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 9 | 26 |
| Draws | 10 | 2 |
| Losses | 11 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 2.33 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 11, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle
1:4
Mar 7, 2026 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
3:1
Sep 20, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle
2:2
Aug 20, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
Mushuc Runa vs Independiente del Valle
2:2
Aug 13, 2025 Copa Sudamericana
Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Mushuc Runa Compare
Top Goalscorer Davila E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Independiente del Valle Compare
Top Goalscorer Reasco D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Sornoza J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Mushuc Runa 32 / 100
Independiente del Valle 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Mushuc Runa Independiente del Valle
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Independiente del Valle Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.
Mushuc Runa found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).
Independiente del Valle has conceded goals in 61% of their last 33 outings.
Mushuc Runa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Mushuc Runa VS Independiente del Valle
0.88 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Mushuc Runa
(Home) 20 Sept
Dep. Cuenca
1 : 1 Mushuc Runa
12 Sept
Guayaquil City
3 : 1 Mushuc Runa
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1 Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0 Mushuc Runa
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0 Delfin
Page 1 of 6
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1 Leones del Norte
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0 Delfin
16 Aug
Mushuc Runa
0 : 0 Barcelona SC
27 Jul
Mushuc Runa
0 : 2 Libertad
20 Jul
Mushuc Runa
2 : 1 Orense
Page 1 of 3
Independiente del Valle
(Away) 25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
11 Sept
Independiente del Valle
0 : 2 Flamengo RJ
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1 Macara
Page 1 of 7
25 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 2 Independiente del Valle
18 Sept
Flamengo RJ
1 : 1 Independiente del Valle
13 Sept
Libertad
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
03 Sept
Barcelona SC
2 : 1 Independiente del Valle
22 Aug
Leones del Norte
2 : 3 Independiente del Valle
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73:33 | 74 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51:27 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41:33 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33:28 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31:24 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32:25 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:34 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31:32 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33:36 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25:34 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35:38 | 38 |
| 12 | Dep. Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25:37 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36:47 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico U. | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28:42 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19:31 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17:42 | 21 |
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)
