Sport Picks

Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista

U. Catolica

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Mushuc Runa play U. Catolica in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Mushuc Runa averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. U. Catolica averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Mushuc Runa won 1, U. Catolica won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jul 6, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Mushuc Runa and 1.44 for U. Catolica. This points to a Mushuc Runa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Mushuc Runa

35%

Draws

31%

U. Catolica

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mushuc Runa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Mushuc Runa picked up more points recently compared to U. Catolica.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 16%

U. Catolica Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Mushuc Runa	U. Catolica
Matches Played	28	30
Wins	9	10
Draws	10	9
Losses	9	11
Goals Scored	1.29	1.43
Goals Conceded	1.21	1.27
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 48% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

2:3

Mar 1, 2026 Liga Pro

Mushuc Runa vs U. Catolica

Possession: 47% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

Jul 5, 2025 Liga Pro

Mushuc Runa vs U. Catolica

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Mar 9, 2025 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 44% - 53% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Aug 31, 2024 Liga Pro

U. Catolica vs Mushuc Runa

Possession: 42% - 54% Cards: 4 - 0

5:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Mushuc Runa 34 / 100

U. Catolica 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Mushuc Runa U. Catolica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mushuc Runa or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Mushuc Runa attacking → ← attacking U. Catolica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mushuc Runa scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

U. Catolica let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Mushuc Runa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

U. Catolica lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 39

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Independiente del Valle	17	13	1	3	36:18	40
2	Barcelona SC	17	8	5	4	20:13	29
3	Aucas	17	8	5	4	20:16	29
4	LDU Quito	17	8	3	6	19:14	27
5	Dep. Cuenca	17	8	3	6	18:19	27
6	U. Catolica	17	7	5	5	28:17	26
7	Tecnico U.	17	7	2	8	19:17	23
8	Macara	17	6	5	6	16:18	23
9	Emelec	17	6	5	6	14:17	23
10	Orense	17	6	4	7	22:24	22
11	Mushuc Runa	17	5	6	6	22:23	21
12	Leones del Norte	17	5	5	7	18:19	20
13	Guayaquil City	17	5	4	8	14:20	19
14	Delfin	17	4	5	8	9:16	17
15	Libertad	17	4	5	8	17:25	17
16	Manta	17	3	3	11	7:23	12