Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026

Heerenveen

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

NAC Breda play Heerenveen in the Eredivisie 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, NAC Breda averaged 1 goals scored and 1.79 conceded. Heerenveen averaged 1.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, NAC Breda won 1, Heerenveen won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 11, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for NAC Breda and 1.75 for Heerenveen. This points to a Heerenveen double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%

NAC Breda

24%

Draws

52%

Heerenveen

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Heerenveen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

NAC Breda picked up more points recently compared to Heerenveen.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.75 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 84%

Over 2.5 Goals 61%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

NAC Breda Clean Sheet 12%

Heerenveen Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 76%

Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	NAC Breda	Heerenveen
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	4	14
Draws	10	5
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1	1.97
Goals Conceded	1.79	1.69
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Eredivisie

NAC Breda vs Heerenveen

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 1 - 0

2:0

Oct 24, 2025 Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs NAC Breda

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 1 - 3

3:3

Jan 12, 2025 Eredivisie

NAC Breda vs Heerenveen

Possession: 41% - 55% Cards: 3 - 0

2:4

Aug 31, 2024 Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs NAC Breda

Possession: 46% - 47% Cards: 1 - 0

4:0

Feb 7, 2023 KNVB Beker

NAC Breda vs Heerenveen

Possession: 51% - 46% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

NAC Breda Compare

Top Goalscorer Kemper B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Heerenveen Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

NAC Breda 24 / 100

Heerenveen 49 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

NAC Breda Heerenveen

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Heerenveen or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +50%

6.25

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.82

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

NAC Breda attacking → ← attacking Heerenveen

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

NAC Breda scored in 57% of their last 28 games.

Heerenveen let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

NAC Breda went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Heerenveen lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 47

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.50

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV	34	27	3	4	101:45	84
2	Feyenoord	34	19	8	7	70:44	65
3	Nijmegen	34	16	11	7	77:53	59
4	Twente	34	15	13	6	59:40	58
5	Ajax	34	14	14	6	62:41	56
6	Utrecht	34	15	8	11	55:42	53
7	AZ Alkmaar	34	14	10	10	58:51	52
8	Heerenveen	34	14	9	11	57:53	51
9	Groningen	34	14	6	14	49:45	48
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	7	15	40:62	43
11	Sittard	34	11	6	17	49:63	39
12	G.A. Eagles	34	8	14	12	54:53	38
13	Excelsior	34	10	8	16	43:56	38
14	Telstar	34	9	10	15	49:55	37
15	Zwolle	34	9	10	15	44:71	37
16	FC Volendam	34	8	8	18	35:55	32
17	NAC Breda	34	6	11	17	35:58	29
18	Heracles	34	5	4	25	35:85	19