Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nacional PR vs Toledo

Brazil Brazil

Paranaense 2
Nacional PR Logo

Nacional PR

1 - 1
FT
Toledo Logo

Toledo

Our Tip

Match Events

59' Event
Agnael
90'
Santos E.
90' Event
Joao Pedro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Paranaense 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Nacional PR
30%
Draws
31%
Toledo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Nacional PR

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Toledo have won more games recently than Nacional PR.
  • Nacional PR are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Nacional PR Clean Sheet 68%
Toledo Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nacional PR Toledo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 11 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.23 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Paranaense 2
Nacional PR vs Toledo
1:1
May 4, 2025 Paranaense 2
Toledo vs Nacional PR
2:0
Nov 21, 2020 Serie D
Nacional PR vs Toledo
1:4
Sep 27, 2020 Serie D
Toledo vs Nacional PR
2:3
Mar 31, 2013 Paranaense
Nacional PR vs Toledo
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nacional PR Compare

Top Goalscorer Joao Pedro
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Toledo Compare

Top Goalscorer Agnael
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nacional PR 86 / 100
Toledo 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nacional PR Toledo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional PR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Nacional PR scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Toledo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 60% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Nacional PR remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Nacional PR VS Toledo
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Nacional PR

(Home)
10 May
Patriotas
1 : 0
Nacional PR
02 May
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Patriotas
25 Apr
Laranja Mecanica
0 : 1
Nacional PR
18 Apr
Nacional PR
0 : 0
Batel
12 Apr
Nacional PR
1 : 4
Paranavai-PR
Page 1 of 6

Toledo

(Away)
10 May
Parana
6 : 1
Toledo
03 May
Toledo
0 : 2
Parana
25 Apr
Paranavai-PR
0 : 1
Toledo
19 Apr
Toledo
0 : 0
Rio Branco PR
10 Apr
Parana
2 : 0
Toledo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Parana 9 7 2 0 14:3 23
2 Patriotas 9 6 1 2 16:9 19
3 Laranja Mecanica 9 4 2 3 7:9 14
4 Araucaria 9 3 3 3 13:14 12
5 Rio Branco PR 9 2 5 2 16:14 11
6 Paranavai-PR 9 3 1 5 10:11 10
7 Nacional PR 9 2 4 3 9:12 10
8 Toledo 9 2 4 3 6:10 10
9 Batel 9 2 3 4 10:10 9
10 Prudentopolis 9 1 1 7 4:13 4
Promotion - Paranaense 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paranaense 3 2027 (Main)