Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Naft Missan vs Al Mosul

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Gueye Dieme D.
45' Event
Al Dali A.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Stars League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Naft Missan
30%
Draws
12%
Al Mosul
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Naft Missan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Al Mosul haven't matched Naft Missan's recent run of results.
  • Naft Missan are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Stars League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 18%
Al Mosul Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Naft Missan Al Mosul
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 10 13
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.17 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Stars League
Naft Missan vs Al Mosul
1:1
Dec 22, 2025 Stars League
Al Mosul vs Naft Missan
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Naft Missan Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye Dieme D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Al Mosul Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Naft Missan 36 / 100
Al Mosul 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Naft Missan Al Mosul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Mosul has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Naft Missan scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Naft Missan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Naft Missan VS Al Mosul
0.38 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
13% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Naft Missan

(Home)
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
04 Sept
Naft Missan
0 : 2
Newroz
29 Aug
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1 : 1
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6

Al Mosul

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
13 Sept
Zakho
2 : 1
Al Mosul
09 Sept
Newroz
3 : 0
Al Mosul
03 Sept
Al Mosul
2 : 2
Al Zawraa
30 Aug
Al Shorta
2 : 0
Al Mosul
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 27 8 3 62:28 89
2 Al Shorta 38 24 8 6 69:32 80
3 Erbil 38 23 10 5 59:32 79
4 Al Zawraa 38 17 15 6 50:32 66
5 Al-Karma 38 17 14 7 53:26 65
6 Al Talaba 38 18 11 9 53:38 65
7 Al Karkh 38 16 12 10 51:41 60
8 Newroz 38 16 6 16 48:47 54
9 Zakho 38 14 11 13 49:45 53
10 Duhok 38 13 11 14 44:45 50
11 Diyala 38 13 10 15 40:42 49
12 Al Naft 38 11 15 12 33:34 48
13 Al Mosul 38 11 14 13 46:49 47
14 Al Gharraf 38 11 11 16 40:43 44
15 Naft Missan 38 11 10 17 48:57 43
16 Al Minaa 38 9 13 16 38:47 40
17 Al Kahraba 37 11 5 21 44:56 38
18 Baghdad 38 10 7 21 47:68 37
19 Al Najaf 37 6 5 26 31:68 23
20 Al-Qassim 38 0 6 32 21:96 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2025/2026 (Relegation)