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Napier City vs Auckland City

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Corfe D.
37' Event
Liam S.
43' Event
Kilkolly A.

AI Match Summary

Auckland City in this National League 2023 matchup, with the score ending 2-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Auckland City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Napier City
40%
Draws
29%
Auckland City
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Auckland City have won more games recently than Napier City.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Napier City Clean Sheet 20%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Auckland City
Matches Played 32 39
Wins 12 24
Draws 4 6
Losses 16 9
Goals Scored 3.67 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.67 3.25
Expected Goals (xG) 3.67 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.67 3.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 17, 2024 National League
Napier City vs Auckland City
0:1
Oct 8, 2023 National League
Napier City vs Auckland City
2:4
Oct 23, 2022 National League
Auckland City vs Napier City
3:0
Jan 22, 2005 Football Championship
Auckland City vs Napier City
3:3
Jan 4, 2005 Football Championship
Napier City vs Auckland City
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Corfe D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Liam S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.82
Avg xA / game 1.83

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Kilkolly A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Howieson C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 32 / 100
Auckland City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Auckland City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Napier City scored in 84% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 4.40 goals as a typical output.

Auckland City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 39 matches.

Recent resilience: Napier City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS Auckland City
3.67 Goals Scored 0.75
1.67 Goals Conceded 3.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
06 Jul
Napier City
2 : 3
Wellington Olympic
23 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Napier City
17 Nov
Napier City
0 : 1
Auckland City
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Auckland City

(Away)
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2
Auckland City
04 Jul
Auckland City
3 : 0
Takapuna Afc
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Auckland City
06 Dec
Auckland City
3 : 0
Coastal Spirit
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3
Auckland City
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic972034:1523
2Auckland City970219:1221
3Christchurch951318:1616
4Eastern Suburbs943223:1115
5Manurewa941416:2013
6Cashmere Technical941424:2413
7Auckland United924315:1710
8Wellington Phoenix 2930619:249
9Napier City921613:267
10Petone90186:221
Promotion - National League 2023 (Grand Final)