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Napier City vs Wellington Phoenix 2 Prediction & H2H Stats

New Zealand New Zealand

National League 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Faulds O.
45' Event
Flowerdew L.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this National League 2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Napier City
20%
Draws
29%
Wellington Phoenix 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Napier City haven't matched Wellington Phoenix 2's recent run of results.
  • Napier City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Napier City have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Napier City Clean Sheet 13%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napier City Wellington Phoenix 2
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 11
Draws 5 3
Losses 15 17
Goals Scored 1.93 1.94
Goals Conceded 2.33 2.55
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.64
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2024 National League
Napier City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Napier City
0:1
Oct 1, 2022 National League
Napier City vs Wellington Phoenix 2
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Faulds O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napier City 84 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napier City Wellington Phoenix 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napier City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Wellington Phoenix 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 84% of 31 matches.

Napier City went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Wellington Phoenix 2 registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napier City VS Wellington Phoenix 2
2 Goals Scored 1.13
2.14 Goals Conceded 2
86% Over 1.5 75%
71% Over 2.5 63%
57% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Napier City

(Home)
04 Oct
Auckland United
7 : 1
Napier City
26 Sept
Napier City
1 : 1
Miramar
16 Aug
Cashmere Technical
2 : 1
Napier City
26 Jul
Hibiscus Coast
2 : 5
Napier City
04 Jul
Petone
0 : 4
Napier City
Page 1 of 6

Wellington Phoenix 2

(Away)
04 Oct
Cashmere Technical
10 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1
Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7
Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3
Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Birkenhead 9 6 2 1 23:16 20
2 Auckland City 9 6 1 2 20:10 19
3 Western Springs 9 6 0 3 25:16 18
4 Napier City 9 5 2 2 21:14 17
5 Wellington Phoenix 2 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
6 Wellington Olympic 9 3 2 4 17:15 11
7 Coastal Spirit 9 3 2 4 18:20 11
8 Cashmere Technical 9 2 3 4 16:18 9
9 Eastern Suburbs 9 1 2 6 8:17 5
10 Western Suburbs 9 1 1 7 9:28 4
Promotion - National League 2024 (Grand Final)