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Napoli vs Bologna

Italy Italy

Super Cup King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Conte A.
39' Event
David Neres
Assist: Politano M.
44'
Heggem T.

AI Match Summary

Napoli in this Super Cup tie, finishing 2-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Napoli
22%
Draws
18%
Bologna
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Napoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Bologna haven't matched Napoli's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Napoli a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Napoli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napoli, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Napoli Clean Sheet 68%
Bologna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napoli Bologna
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 15 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.63 1.13
Goals Conceded 1 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Serie A
Napoli vs Bologna
2:3
Dec 22, 2025 Super Cup
Napoli vs Bologna
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie A
Bologna vs Napoli
2:0
Apr 7, 2025 Serie A
Bologna vs Napoli
1:1
Aug 25, 2024 Serie A
Napoli vs Bologna
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer David Neres
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Bologna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napoli 68 / 100
Bologna 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napoli Bologna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napoli found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Bologna has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Napoli went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napoli VS Bologna
1.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Napoli

(Home)
26 Jul
Napoli
2 : 0
Carrarese
22 Jul
Napoli
1 : 3
Arezzo
24 May
Napoli
1 : 0
Udinese
17 May
Pisa
0 : 3
Napoli
11 May
Napoli
2 : 3
Bologna
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Bologna

(Away)
25 Jul
Bologna
2 : 0
Iraklis FC
22 Jul
Bologna
1 : 1
Heidenheim
18 Jul
Bologna
0 : 4
Arminia Bielefeld
23 May
Bologna
3 : 3
Inter
17 May
Atalanta
0 : 1
Bologna
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Napoli2
AC Milan0
Bologna2
Inter1
Final
Napoli2
Bologna0