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Stadium Background

Napoli vs Bologna

Italy Italy

Super Cup King Saud University Stadium, Riyadh
Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Conte A.
39' Event
David Neres
Assist: Politano M.
44'
Heggem T.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Napoli
15%
Draws
12%
Bologna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Napoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Bologna haven't matched Napoli's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Napoli a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Napoli have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Napoli, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Napoli Clean Sheet 68%
Bologna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Napoli Bologna
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 15 13
Draws 4 5
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.66 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Serie A
Napoli vs Bologna
1:0
May 11, 2026 Serie A
Napoli vs Bologna
2:3
Dec 22, 2025 Super Cup
Napoli vs Bologna
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie A
Bologna vs Napoli
2:0
Apr 7, 2025 Serie A
Bologna vs Napoli
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Napoli Compare

Top Goalscorer David Neres
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Bologna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Napoli 68 / 100
Bologna 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Napoli Bologna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Napoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napoli found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (29 games).

Bologna has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Bologna lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Napoli VS Bologna
2.13 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Napoli

(Home)
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0
Bologna
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1
Arsenal
05 Sept
Inter
3 : 2
Napoli
30 Aug
Napoli
1 : 2
Como
22 Aug
Genoa
0 : 2
Napoli
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Bologna

(Away)
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0
Bologna
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2
Sassuolo
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1
Lazio
15 Aug
Brighton
1 : 0
Bologna
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Napoli 2
AC Milan 0
Bologna 2
Inter 1
Final
Napoli 2
Bologna 0