Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nasaf Qarshi vs Metallurg Bekabad

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League 2024 Markaziy Stadium, Qarshi
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Palic K.
40'
Mozgovoy A.
45' Event
Nasrullaev S.
Assist: Sidikov J.

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2024 game between Nasaf Qarshi and Metallurg Bekabad finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Metallurg Bekabad.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Nasaf Qarshi
40%
Draws
29%
Metallurg Bekabad
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Nasaf Qarshi have managed 1.38 goals a game lately — Metallurg Bekabad are scoring more at 2.5.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 10%
Metallurg Bekabad Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nasaf Qarshi Metallurg Bekabad
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 12 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.38 2.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 30, 2024 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Metallurg Bekabad
1:2
Jun 26, 2024 Super League
Metallurg Bekabad vs Nasaf Qarshi
0:0
Oct 27, 2023 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Metallurg Bekabad
2:0
May 15, 2023 Super League
Metallurg Bekabad vs Nasaf Qarshi
1:2
Aug 12, 2022 Super League
Metallurg Bekabad vs Nasaf Qarshi
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nasaf Qarshi Compare

Top Goalscorer Nasrullaev S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Metallurg Bekabad Compare

Top Goalscorer Sharipov D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nasaf Qarshi 30 / 100
Metallurg Bekabad 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nasaf Qarshi Metallurg Bekabad

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Solid form: Nasaf Qarshi remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Nasaf Qarshi scored in 76% of their last 34 games.

Metallurg Bekabad's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Nasaf Qarshi VS Metallurg Bekabad
1.38 Goals Scored 2.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Nasaf Qarshi

(Home)
28 Jul
Nasaf Qarshi
1 : 0
Qizilqum
22 Jul
Mashal Muborak
1 : 1
Nasaf Qarshi
16 Jul
Bunyodkor
1 : 3
Nasaf Qarshi
04 May
Nasaf Qarshi
0 : 0
Navbahor Namangan
28 Apr
Pakhtakor
2 : 2
Nasaf Qarshi
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Metallurg Bekabad

(Away)
23 Jul
Gazalkent
3 : 2
Metallurg Bekabad
08 Jun
Metallurg Bekabad
7 : 0
FarDU
04 Jun
Shortan Guzor
1 : 0
Metallurg Bekabad
31 May
Metallurg Bekabad
1 : 1
Kattaqurgon
05 May
Jayxun
2 : 0
Metallurg Bekabad
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nasaf Qarshi26157435:1852
2OKMK26145740:2947
3Navbahor Namangan261110542:3143
4Sogdiana26127741:2943
5Neftchi Fargona261110532:2443
6Pakhtakor261151042:3738
7Termez Surkhon261061030:3136
8Din. Samarkand26951235:3832
9Andijan26612836:3630
10Bunyodkor26791027:3830
11Qizilqum26691125:3427
12Olympic26671322:3825
13Metallurg Bekabad26314922:3023
14Lok. Tashkent26561528:4421
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2025/2026 (Main)
Relegation - Super League 2024 (Relegation)