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Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nashville SC play Chicago Fire in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nashville SC averaged 1.72 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Chicago Fire averaged 2.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Nashville SC won 3, Chicago Fire won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 5, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.56 for Nashville SC and 1.56 for Chicago Fire. This points to a Nashville SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Nashville SC
16%
Draws
39%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Nashville SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Nashville SC picked up more points recently compared to Chicago Fire.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.56 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Nashville SC Clean Sheet 15%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nashville SC Chicago Fire
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.72 2.03
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC
1:0
Jan 20, 2026 Club Friendly
Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire
1:4
Jun 15, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC
0:2
Apr 27, 2025 MLS
Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire
7:2
Oct 19, 2024 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Nashville SC
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nashville SC 44 / 100
Chicago Fire 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nashville SC Chicago Fire

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nashville SC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nashville SC attacking → ← attacking Chicago Fire

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nashville SC scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Chicago Fire let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Nashville SC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Chicago Fire lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

55 Points in last 5 51
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63