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Neftci Baku vs Shamakhi

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Palms Sports Arena, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Mahmudov E.
10'
Ortiz L.
20'
Agcabayov A.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Neftci Baku and Shamakhi finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Neftci Baku
22%
Draws
18%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Neftci Baku come out ahead of Shamakhi on wins alone.
  • Neftci Baku are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 20%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftci Baku Shamakhi
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.88 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Shamakhi
3:0
Feb 28, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Neftci Baku
2:2
Aug 16, 2025 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Shamakhi
1:1
Apr 7, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Neftci Baku
0:2
Jan 31, 2025 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Shamakhi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Mahmudov E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Faraj I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Shamakhi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftci Baku 58 / 100
Shamakhi 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftci Baku Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Neftci Baku scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Difficult form: Shamakhi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Shamakhi conceded in 57% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Neftci Baku VS Shamakhi
1.88 Goals Scored 0.86
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
88% Over 1.5 71%
75% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Neftci Baku

(Home)
22 Jul
Neftci Baku
2 : 4
Din. Minsk
13 Jul
Neftci Baku
0 : 1
Osijek
10 Jul
Radnicki Nis
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
06 Jul
Partizan
1 : 0
Neftci Baku
02 Jul
Neftci Baku
1 : 2
CFR Cluj
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Shamakhi

(Away)
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Neftci Baku
3 : 0
Shamakhi
03 May
Shamakhi
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)