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Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan Cup Palms Sports Arena
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Aboubakar V.
27' Event
Qurbanly N.
Own Goal
42' Event
Aboubakar V.

AI Match Summary

Neftci Baku play MOIK Baku in the Azerbaijan Cup. Neftci Baku are favorites here. Recently, Neftci Baku averaged 2.13 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. MOIK Baku averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. In past meetings, Neftci Baku won 5, MOIK Baku won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 29, 2025 ended 6:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.92 for Neftci Baku and 1.27 for MOIK Baku. This points to a Neftci Baku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Neftci Baku
22%
Draws
18%
MOIK Baku
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Neftci Baku has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to MOIK Baku.
  • Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Neftci Baku.
  • Cup tournament structure in Azerbaijan Cup increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 93%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Neftci Baku MOIK Baku
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 9
Draws 6 7
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.13 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.71

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
6:2
Feb 25, 2011 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
1:0
Sep 18, 2010 Premier League
MOIK Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:4
Apr 5, 2009 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
3:1
Nov 5, 2008 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Aboubakar V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Salyanskiy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

MOIK Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Mammadov E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Neftci Baku 68 / 100
MOIK Baku 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Neftci Baku MOIK Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Neftci Baku scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

MOIK Baku let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Neftci Baku went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

MOIK Baku lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Neftci Baku VS MOIK Baku
2.13 Goals Scored 1.29
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.71
100% Over 1.5 86%
88% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sabail0
Shamakhi1
Goygol0
Baku Sporting2
Qarabag Agdam-
TBD-
Karvan3
Sheki City1
Lokbatan2
Imisli FK3
TBD-
Sabah Baku-
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
Cebrayil0
Safa Baku3
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar2
Dinamo Baki0
Turan5
Araz PFK-
TBD-
Kapaz6
Agstafa Gencleri1
FC Khankendi1
Difai Agsu2
Zaqatala PFK0
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK-
TBD-
Neftci Baku6
MOIK Baku2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi1
Baku Sporting0
Qarabag Agdam3
Karvan0
Imisli FK1
Sabah Baku2
Gabala2
Safa Baku1
Sahdag Qusar1
Turan2
Araz PFK0
Kapaz1
Difai Agsu1
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK1
Neftci Baku0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi3
Qarabag Agdam4
Sabah Baku4
Gabala3
Turan3
Kapaz0
SumQayit FK0
Zira FK2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam3
Sabah Baku4
Turan0
Zira FK2
Final
Sabah Baku2
Zira FK1