Sport Picks
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan Cup Palms Sports Arena, Baku 
Match Events
8'
8'
Aboubakar V.
27'
27'
Qurbanly N.
Own Goal
42'
42'
Aboubakar V.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 6-2, with Neftci Baku advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Neftci Baku
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Neftci Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Neftci Baku's way, sitting at 40%.
- Neftci Baku have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Neftci Baku, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Neftci Baku have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 97%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Neftci Baku | MOIK Baku |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 16 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.88 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.71 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.71 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
6:2
Feb 25, 2011 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
1:0
Sep 18, 2010 Premier League
MOIK Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:4
Apr 5, 2009 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs MOIK Baku
3:1
Nov 5, 2008 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Neftci Baku
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Neftci Baku Compare
Top Goalscorer Aboubakar V.
2 Goals Assists Leader Salyanskiy A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
MOIK Baku Compare
Top Goalscorer Mammadov E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Neftci Baku 50 / 100
MOIK Baku 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Neftci Baku MOIK Baku
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NEF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
MOIK Baku has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.
Neftci Baku's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Difficult form: MOIK Baku registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Neftci Baku VS MOIK Baku
1.88 Goals Scored 1.29
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.71
88% Over 1.5 86%
75% Over 2.5 71%
13% Over 3.5 43%
Recent Form & Match History
Neftci Baku
(Home) 13 Jul
Neftci Baku
0 : 1 Osijek
10 Jul
Radnicki Nis
0 : 3 Neftci Baku
06 Jul
Partizan
1 : 0 Neftci Baku
02 Jul
Neftci Baku
1 : 2 CFR Cluj
23 May
Kapaz
0 : 1 Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6
13 Jul
Neftci Baku
0 : 1 Osijek
02 Jul
Neftci Baku
1 : 2 CFR Cluj
10 May
Neftci Baku
3 : 0 Shamakhi
30 Apr
Neftci Baku
2 : 1 Qarabag Agdam
26 Apr
Neftci Baku
1 : 5 Qarabag Agdam
Page 1 of 3
MOIK Baku
(Away) 21 May
MOIK Baku
4 : 0 Difai Agsu
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1 MOIK Baku
06 May
Shimal
1 : 1 MOIK Baku
29 Apr
MOIK Baku
0 : 1 Sahdag Qusar
22 Apr
Safa Baku
3 : 0 MOIK Baku
Page 1 of 6
15 May
Mingachevir
3 : 1 MOIK Baku
06 May
Shimal
1 : 1 MOIK Baku
22 Apr
Safa Baku
3 : 0 MOIK Baku
08 Apr
Baku Sporting
3 : 1 MOIK Baku
18 Mar
Sabail
2 : 2 MOIK Baku
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Sabail0
Shamakhi1
Goygol0
Baku Sporting2
Qarabag Agdam-
TBD-
Karvan3
Sheki City1
Lokbatan2
Imisli FK3
TBD-
Sabah Baku-
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
Cebrayil0
Safa Baku3
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar2
Dinamo Baki0
Turan5
Araz PFK-
TBD-
Kapaz6
Agstafa Gencleri1
FC Khankendi1
Difai Agsu2
Zaqatala PFK0
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK-
TBD-
Neftci Baku6
MOIK Baku2
1/8-finals
Shamakhi1
Baku Sporting0
Qarabag Agdam3
Karvan0
Imisli FK1
Sabah Baku2
Gabala2
Safa Baku1
Sahdag Qusar1
Turan2
Araz PFK0
Kapaz1
Difai Agsu1
SumQayit FK3
Zira FK1
Neftci Baku0
Quarter-finals
Shamakhi3
Qarabag Agdam4
Sabah Baku4
Gabala3
Turan3
Kapaz0
SumQayit FK0
Zira FK2
Semi-finals
Qarabag Agdam3
Sabah Baku4
Turan0
Zira FK2
Final
Sabah Baku2
Zira FK1