Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Dire Dawa

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Tefera D.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Melese D.
61' Event
Bizuneh K.

AI Match Summary

Negele Arsi Ketema FC in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Negele Arsi Ketema FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
30%
Draws
34%
Dire Dawa
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Negele Arsi Ketema FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Negele Arsi Ketema FC have won more games recently than Dire Dawa.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Negele Arsi Ketema FC taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Clean Sheet 68%
Dire Dawa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Negele Arsi Ketema FC Dire Dawa
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 6
Draws 11 13
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1 0.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2026 Premier League
Negele Arsi Ketema FC vs Dire Dawa
3:0
Dec 30, 2025 Premier League
Dire Dawa vs Negele Arsi Ketema FC
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Negele Arsi Ketema FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Melese D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bizuneh K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Dire Dawa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Negele Arsi Ketema FC 46 / 100
Dire Dawa 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Negele Arsi Ketema FC Dire Dawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Negele Arsi Ketema FC scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Dire Dawa has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Negele Arsi Ketema FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Negele Arsi Ketema FC VS Dire Dawa
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Negele Arsi Ketema FC

(Home)
01 Jul
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
3 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
26 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 0
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
20 Jun
Sidama Bunna
1 : 1
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
15 Jun
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
2 : 1
Hawassa
04 Jun
Welayta Dicha
0 : 0
Negele Arsi Ketema FC
Page 1 of 7

Dire Dawa

(Away)
01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1
Arba Menche
27 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
1 : 1
Dire Dawa
20 Jun
Dire Dawa
2 : 0
Sheger Ketema FC
14 Jun
Ethiopian Insurance
1 : 0
Dire Dawa
28 May
Dire Dawa
1 : 2
St. Georges
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sidama Bunna381911843:2368
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5Ethio Electric S.C.3813151032:2654
6St. Georges3814121233:3154
7Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)