Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group F 2017/2018

Fabriano Cerreto

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nerostellati Pratola play Fabriano Cerreto in the Serie D - Group F 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nerostellati Pratola averaged 0.53 goals scored and 1.83 conceded. Fabriano Cerreto averaged 0.73 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. In past meetings, Nerostellati Pratola won 1, Fabriano Cerreto won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 5, 2018 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Nerostellati Pratola and 1.19 for Fabriano Cerreto. This points to a Nerostellati Pratola double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

Nerostellati Pratola

23%

Draws

27%

Fabriano Cerreto

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Nerostellati Pratola

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Nerostellati Pratola picked up more points recently compared to Fabriano Cerreto.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Nerostellati Pratola Clean Sheet 20%

Fabriano Cerreto Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 73%

Second Half Goal 77%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Nerostellati Pratola	Fabriano Cerreto
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	3	3
Draws	9	5
Losses	18	22
Goals Scored	0.53	0.73
Goals Conceded	1.83	2.07
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 5, 2018 Serie D - Group F

Fabriano Cerreto vs Nerostellati Pratola

Possession: 56% - 53% Cards: 2 - 1

1:1

Dec 17, 2017 Serie D - Group F

Nerostellati Pratola vs Fabriano Cerreto

Possession: 50% - 41% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nerostellati Pratola 49 / 100

Fabriano Cerreto 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Nerostellati Pratola Fabriano Cerreto

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nerostellati Pratola or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19%

2.38

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nerostellati Pratola attacking → ← attacking Fabriano Cerreto

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nerostellati Pratola scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

Fabriano Cerreto let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Nerostellati Pratola went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Fabriano Cerreto lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 14

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vis Pesaro	34	23	4	7	61:29	73
2	Matelica	34	22	5	7	66:28	71
3	Avezzano	34	16	14	4	51:26	62
4	Pineto	34	15	12	7	53:41	57
5	Aquila Calcio	34	15	10	9	57:40	55
6	ASD Francavilla	34	14	11	9	47:38	53
7	San Marino Calcio	34	15	6	13	45:35	51
8	Vastese	34	15	6	13	55:50	51
9	Sangiustese	34	13	9	12	39:41	48
10	Campobasso	34	13	10	11	41:40	45
11	Castelfidardo	34	12	8	14	43:54	44
12	Recanatese	34	12	7	15	47:47	43
13	Agnonese	34	11	8	15	34:35	41
14	Notaresco Calcio	34	11	7	16	42:51	40
15	Jesina	34	8	10	16	32:46	34
16	Monticelli	34	5	15	14	25:45	30
17	Fabriano Cerreto	34	5	5	24	29:69	20
18	Nerostellati Pratola	34	3	9	22	19:71	18