Sport Picks
New York City vs FC Cincinnati
USA
MLS Yankee Stadium, New York, NY 
Match Events
20'
20'
Mercau N.
23'
23'
Sub
Hadebe T. In: Powell A.
Out: Hadebe T.
32'
32'
Denkey K.
Assist: Echenique E.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 4-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
17%
70%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: FC Cincinnati
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- FC Cincinnati have won more games recently than New York City.
- FC Cincinnati are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and New York City have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
New York City Clean Sheet 10%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | New York City | FC Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 3.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 2.25 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 3.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 2.25 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 22, 2026 MLS
New York City vs FC Cincinnati
4:4
Aug 23, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs New York City
0:1
May 4, 2025 MLS
New York City vs FC Cincinnati
1:0
Nov 9, 2024 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs New York City
0:1
Nov 2, 2024 MLS
New York City vs FC Cincinnati
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
New York City Compare
Top Goalscorer Mercau N.
2 Goals Assists Leader Ojeda A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
FC Cincinnati Compare
Top Goalscorer Denkey K.
2 Goals Assists Leader Chirila A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
New York City 14 / 100
FC Cincinnati 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
New York City FC Cincinnati
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FCC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
New York City found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
FC Cincinnati let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: New York City stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
New York City VS FC Cincinnati
1.38 Goals Scored 3.25
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 88%
Recent Form & Match History
New York City
(Home) 22 Jul
Columbus Crew
1 : 2 New York City
24 May
Nashville SC
2 : 1 New York City
20 May
Columbus Crew
1 : 0 New York City
16 May
New York Red Bulls
1 : 1 New York City
13 May
Charlotte FC
0 : 1 New York City
Page 1 of 6
10 May
New York City
3 : 0 Columbus Crew
03 May
New York City
0 : 2 DC United
22 Apr
New York City
4 : 4 FC Cincinnati
18 Apr
New York City
1 : 2 Charlotte FC
04 Apr
New York City
1 : 1 St. Louis City
Page 1 of 3
FC Cincinnati
(Away) 22 Jul
FC Cincinnati
4 : 3 Vancouver Whitecaps
10 Jul
FC Cincinnati
3 : 1 Burnley
23 May
FC Cincinnati
6 : 2 Orlando City
17 May
San Diego FC
3 : 3 FC Cincinnati
13 May
FC Cincinnati
3 : 5 Inter Miami
Page 1 of 6
17 May
San Diego FC
3 : 3 FC Cincinnati
09 May
Charlotte FC
2 : 2 FC Cincinnati
03 May
Chicago Fire
2 : 3 FC Cincinnati
22 Apr
New York City
4 : 4 FC Cincinnati
11 Apr
Toronto FC
1 : 1 FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37:16 | 33 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34:18 | 33 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35:20 | 33 |
| 4 | Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 26 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 23:24 | 26 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32:25 | 26 |
| 7 | St. Louis City | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 19:20 | 24 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 19:24 | 23 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 31:32 | 21 |
| 11 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24:29 | 21 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 31:28 | 20 |
| 13 | Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26:25 | 19 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 22:35 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18:44 | 14 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 33:12 | 39 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 43:30 | 37 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 26:19 | 29 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 30:22 | 26 |
| 5 | New York City | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30:23 | 25 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:25 | 25 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 41:42 | 23 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 26:37 | 22 |
| 9 | DC United | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 24:27 | 22 |
| 10 | Orlando City | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 28:44 | 20 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 24:26 | 19 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23:31 | 16 |
| 13 | CF Montreal | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:33 | 15 |
| 14 | Philadelphia Union | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 22:31 | 13 |
| 15 | Atlanta United | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 17:30 | 12 |
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)