Sport Picks
Newcastle Utd vs Brighton
England
Premier League 2025/2026 St. James' Park, Newcastle 
Match Events
12'
12'
Osula W.
Assist: Murphy J.
18'
18'
Sub
Wieffer M. In: Veltman J.
Out: Wieffer M.
22'
22'
Veltman J.
AI Match Summary
Newcastle Utd in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Newcastle Utd.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Newcastle Utd
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- Newcastle Utd have won more games recently than Brighton.
- Model gives Newcastle Utd a 60% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Newcastle Utd Clean Sheet 16%
Brighton Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newcastle Utd | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 10 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 2, 2026 Premier League
Newcastle Utd vs Brighton
3:1
Oct 18, 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Newcastle Utd
2:1
May 4, 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Newcastle Utd
1:1
Mar 2, 2025 FA Cup
Newcastle Utd vs Brighton
1:2
Oct 19, 2024 Premier League
Newcastle Utd vs Brighton
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newcastle Utd Compare
Top Goalscorer Osula W.
1 Goals Assists Leader Burn D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Brighton Compare
Top Goalscorer Hinshelwood J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newcastle Utd 57 / 100
Brighton 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newcastle Utd Brighton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick NEW Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Newcastle Utd scored in 83% of their last 29 games.
Brighton has conceded goals in 74% of their last 27 outings.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Newcastle Utd has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Newcastle Utd VS Brighton
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Newcastle Utd
(Home) 25 Jul
Gateshead
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
18 Jul
Newcastle Utd
3 : 0 Darlington FC
24 May
Fulham
2 : 0 Newcastle Utd
17 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 West Ham
10 May
Nottingham
1 : 1 Newcastle Utd
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Newcastle Utd
3 : 0 Darlington FC
17 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 West Ham
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 Brighton
18 Apr
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Bournemouth
22 Mar
Newcastle Utd
1 : 2 Sunderland
Page 1 of 3
Brighton
(Away) 24 May
Brighton
0 : 3 Manchester United
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0 Brighton
09 May
Brighton
3 : 0 Wolves
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 Brighton
21 Apr
Brighton
3 : 0 Chelsea
Page 1 of 6
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0 Brighton
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 Brighton
18 Apr
Tottenham
2 : 2 Brighton
11 Apr
Burnley
0 : 2 Brighton
14 Mar
Sunderland
0 : 1 Brighton
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71:27 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77:35 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69:50 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56:49 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63:53 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58:54 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42:48 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52:46 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55:52 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58:52 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47:51 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle Utd | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53:55 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47:50 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49:56 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41:51 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48:51 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48:57 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46:65 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38:75 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27:68 | 20 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship (Main)
