Sport Picks
Match Events
32'
32'
Whitmore K.
46'
46'
Sub
Yfeko J. In: Swinkels S.
Out: Yfeko J.
46'
46'
Sub
Oakes L. In: Brierley E.
Out: Oakes L.
AI Match Summary
Exeter in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
27%
33%
40%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Exeter
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Newport lately — more wins on the board than Exeter.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Exeter taking it.
- Newport have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Exeter, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Newport Clean Sheet 20%
Exeter Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Newport | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 6 |
| Draws | 4 | 11 |
| Losses | 14 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 1.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy
Newport vs Exeter
0:1
Aug 30, 2022 EFL Trophy
Exeter vs Newport
1:2
Apr 2, 2022 League Two
Newport vs Exeter
0:1
Oct 16, 2021 League Two
Exeter vs Newport
2:2
Apr 24, 2021 League Two
Exeter vs Newport
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Newport Compare
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Exeter Compare
Top Goalscorer Turns E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Newport 28 / 100
Exeter 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Newport Exeter
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick EXE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Exeter conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Solid form: Newport remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Newport scored in 57% of their last 28 games.
Scoring Trends
Newport VS Exeter
2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Newport
(Home) 28 Jul
Newport
0 : 4 Reading
25 Jul
Bath City
2 : 2 Newport
21 Jul
Bristol City
0 : 0 Newport
11 Jul
Gloucester City
2 : 1 Newport
08 Jul
Newport City
0 : 5 Newport
Page 1 of 6
28 Jul
Newport
0 : 4 Reading
25 Apr
Newport
3 : 2 Oldham
11 Apr
Newport
2 : 1 Harrogate
03 Apr
Newport
0 : 2 Crawley Town
28 Mar
Newport
1 : 0 Shrewsbury
Page 1 of 3
Exeter
(Away) 25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2 Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0 Exeter
02 May
Exeter
1 : 2 Bradford City
25 Apr
Burton
1 : 1 Exeter
18 Apr
Exeter
3 : 3 Stockport County
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Weston-super-Mare
0 : 2 Exeter
18 Jul
Truro
1 : 0 Exeter
25 Apr
Burton
1 : 1 Exeter
11 Apr
Plymouth
2 : 2 Exeter
03 Apr
Blackpool
1 : 0 Exeter
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:7 | 5 |
| 3 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:10 | 3 |
| 4 | Wigan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tranmere | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 2 | Blackpool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Barrow | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 4 | Nottingham U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:6 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doncaster | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 6 |
| 3 | Grimsby | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5:12 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 2 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Notts County | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | 3 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Rotherham | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 6 |
| 3 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Oldham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5:14 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harrogate | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Huddersfield | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 6 |
| 3 | Newcastle Utd U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
| 4 | Mansfield | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:6 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 7)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Vale | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 7 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 3 | Accrington | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 4 | Leeds U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3:11 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 8)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crewe | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 3 | Burton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 4 | Liverpool U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | 2 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 9)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Exeter | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 3 | Newport | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Arsenal U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:8 | 3 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 10)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol Rovers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 2 | Plymouth | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 2 |
| 4 | Tottenham U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8:12 | 2 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 11)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 9 |
| 2 | Walsall | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 3 | Shrewsbury | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 12)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swindon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 2 | West Ham U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 3 | Reading | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 4 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:10 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 13)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stevenage | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:4 | 9 |
| 2 | AFC Wimbledon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Bromley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | 2 |
| 4 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6:11 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 14)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Peterborough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:6 | 6 |
| 3 | Crawley Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Aston Villa U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:9 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 15)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colchester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Wycombe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Gillingham | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 4 | Fulham U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:9 | 0 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 16)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 6 |
| 2 | Cambridge Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 3 | Barnet | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:7 | 5 |
| 4 | Brighton U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - EFL Trophy 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
