Sport Picks

England

EFL Trophy 2025/2026 Rodney Parade, Newport

Newport

0 - 1

Exeter

Our Tip

Match Events

32'

Whitmore K.

46'

Sub

Yfeko J. In: Swinkels S.

Out: Yfeko J.

46'

Sub

Oakes L. In: Brierley E.

Out: Oakes L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Exeter in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Newport

35%

Draws

32%

Exeter

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to Newport lately — more wins on the board than Exeter.
42% — that's where the model lands on Newport taking it.
Newport have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Exeter, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

Newport Clean Sheet 20%

Exeter Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Newport	Exeter
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	11	4
Draws	5	10
Losses	13	15
Goals Scored	1.31	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.66	1.52
Expected Goals (xG)	1.19	1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 11, 2025 EFL Trophy

Newport vs Exeter

0:1

Aug 30, 2022 EFL Trophy

Exeter vs Newport

1:2

Apr 2, 2022 League Two

Newport vs Exeter

0:1

Oct 16, 2021 League Two

Exeter vs Newport

2:2

Apr 24, 2021 League Two

Exeter vs Newport

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Newport Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92

Avg xA / game 0.59

Exeter Compare

Top Goalscorer Turns E.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Newport 42 / 100

Exeter 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Newport Exeter

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Newport found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Exeter let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Newport went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Newport VS Exeter

1.5 Goals Scored 0.75

1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 63%

50% Over 2.5 13%

25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Newport

(Home)

22 Sept

Swindon

0 : 2

Newport

19 Sept

Accrington

0 : 0

Newport

12 Sept

Newport

1 : 1

Fleetwood Town

05 Sept

Northampton

1 : 0

Newport

01 Sept

Salford

2 : 1

Newport

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Exeter

(Away)

22 Sept

Cheltenham

3 : 2

Exeter

19 Sept

Exeter

0 : 0

Tranmere

12 Sept

Port Vale

1 : 0

Exeter

08 Sept

Exeter

2 : 0

Tottenham U21

05 Sept

Exeter

0 : 0

Walsall

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