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Nigeria W vs Malawi W

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations Women Stade Larbi Zaouli, Casablanca
Nigeria W Logo

Nigeria W

2 - 3
FT
Malawi W Logo

Malawi W

Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Nguluwe M.
50'
Sub
Nguluwe M. In: Thom S.
Out: Nguluwe M.
53'
Echegini J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-3. This leg finished 2-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nigeria W
15%
Draws
51%
Malawi W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Malawi W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Nigeria W have won more games recently than Malawi W.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Nigeria W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Malawi W, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Nigeria W Clean Sheet 68%
Malawi W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nigeria W Malawi W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 12
Draws 4 3
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.7 1.41
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Africa Cup of Nations Women
Nigeria W vs Malawi W
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nigeria W Compare

Top Goalscorer Kanu U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Malawi W Compare

Top Goalscorer Chawinga T.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nigeria W 41 / 100
Malawi W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nigeria W Malawi W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nigeria W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Nigeria W's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Malawi W let in goals in 78% of their last 27 matches.

Nigeria W went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nigeria W VS Malawi W
2.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Nigeria W

(Home)
13 Aug
South Africa W
2 : 1
Nigeria W
09 Aug
Cameroon W
1 : 0
Nigeria W
05 Aug
Egypt W
2 : 6
Nigeria W
01 Aug
Nigeria W
1 : 0
Zambia W
28 Jul
Nigeria W
2 : 3
Malawi W
Page 1 of 6

Malawi W

(Away)
16 Aug
Cameroon W
3 : 0
Malawi W
12 Aug
Algeria W
1 : 3
Malawi W
09 Aug
Malawi W
2 : 1
Ghana W
05 Aug
Malawi W
1 : 2
Zambia W
01 Aug
Egypt W
1 : 3
Malawi W
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco W 3 2 1 0 5:0 7
2 Algeria W 3 2 0 1 4:1 6
3 Senegal W 3 1 1 1 1:2 4
4 Kenya W 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivory Coast W 3 2 1 0 8:4 7
2 South Africa W 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
3 Burkina Faso W 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Tanzania W 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi W 3 2 0 1 7:5 6
2 Nigeria W 3 2 0 1 9:5 6
3 Zambia W 3 2 0 1 8:2 6
4 Egypt W 3 0 0 3 3:15 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations Women (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon W 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
2 Ghana W 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
3 Mali W 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
4 Cape Verde W 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations Women (Play Offs)