Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nomme Utd U21 vs Elva

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Männiku Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nomme Utd U21 play Elva in the Esiliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nomme Utd U21 averaged 2.54 goals scored and 1.96 conceded. Elva averaged 1.84 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. In past meetings, Nomme Utd U21 won 2, Elva won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on May 16, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Nomme Utd U21 and 2.38 for Elva. This points to a Nomme Utd U21 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Nomme Utd U21
16%
Draws
33%
Elva
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Nomme Utd U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Nomme Utd U21 picked up more points recently compared to Elva.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 2.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 87%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70%
Nomme Utd U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Elva Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 78%
Second Half Goal 83%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nomme Utd U21 Elva
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 14 14
Draws 6 3
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 2.54 1.84
Goals Conceded 1.96 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Esiliiga
Nomme Utd U21 vs Elva
1:0
Apr 19, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs Nomme Utd U21
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nomme Utd U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Truuvaart A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Elva Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nomme Utd U21 48 / 100
Elva 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nomme Utd U21 Elva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Nomme Utd U21 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nomme Utd U21 attacking → ← attacking Elva

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nomme Utd U21 scored in 96% of their last 28 games.

Elva let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Nomme Utd U21 went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Elva lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 45
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tartu JK Welco18133254:2342
2Viimsi JK1895430:1632
3Flora Tallinn U211793544:3430
4Elva1983834:3227
5Levadia U2119801137:3524
6Maardu Linnameeskond1865726:3823
7Tallinna Kalev1964937:3922
8Kalju U211854930:4419
9Nomme Utd U211754834:4119
10FC Tallinn19451025:4917