Sport Picks
North Carolina Courage W vs Bay FC W
USA
NWSL Women WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary, NC 
Match Events
10'
10'
Sub
Anderson J. In: Courtnall B.
Out: Anderson J.
20'
20'
Pfeiffer A.
Assist: Collins S.
30'
30'
Barry K.
Assist: Girelli C.
AI Match Summary
Bay FC W in this NWSL Women matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Bay FC W.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Bay FC W
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Bay FC W haven't matched North Carolina Courage W's recent run of results.
- Model gives Bay FC W a 50% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Bay FC W have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
North Carolina Courage W Clean Sheet 23%
Bay FC W Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | North Carolina Courage W | Bay FC W |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 18, 2026 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
3:0
Mar 28, 2026 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Bay FC W
1:3
Oct 18, 2025 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:4
Apr 19, 2025 NWSL Women
North Carolina Courage W vs Bay FC W
0:1
Oct 20, 2024 NWSL Women
Bay FC W vs North Carolina Courage W
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
North Carolina Courage W Compare
Top Goalscorer Matsukubo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Bay FC W Compare
Top Goalscorer Pfeiffer A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Barry K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
North Carolina Courage W 24 / 100
Bay FC W 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
North Carolina Courage W Bay FC W
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BAY Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
North Carolina Courage W's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Bay FC W has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.
H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.
North Carolina Courage W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
North Carolina Courage W VS Bay FC W
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
North Carolina Courage W
(Home) 18 Jul
Bay FC W
3 : 0 North Carolina Courage W
11 Jul
North Carolina Courage W
0 : 2 Washington Spirit W
04 Jul
North Carolina Courage W
3 : 1 Seattle Reign W
31 May
Angel City W
1 : 2 North Carolina Courage W
23 May
Racing Louisville W
1 : 2 North Carolina Courage W
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
North Carolina Courage W
0 : 2 Washington Spirit W
04 Jul
North Carolina Courage W
3 : 1 Seattle Reign W
16 May
North Carolina Courage W
4 : 0 Chicago Stars W
02 May
North Carolina Courage W
1 : 2 Kansas City Current W
04 Apr
North Carolina Courage W
2 : 2 Portland Thorns FC W
Page 1 of 3
Bay FC W
(Away) 25 Jul
Houston Dash W
1 : 0 Bay FC W
18 Jul
Bay FC W
3 : 0 North Carolina Courage W
11 Jul
Racing Louisville W
0 : 2 Bay FC W
05 Jul
Boston Legacy W
2 : 2 Bay FC W
29 May
Orlando Pride W
3 : 1 Bay FC W
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Houston Dash W
1 : 0 Bay FC W
11 Jul
Racing Louisville W
0 : 2 Bay FC W
05 Jul
Boston Legacy W
2 : 2 Bay FC W
29 May
Orlando Pride W
3 : 1 Bay FC W
21 May
Portland Thorns FC W
2 : 0 Bay FC W
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gotham FC W | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 21:12 | 31 |
| 2 | Washington Spirit W | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 24:12 | 30 |
| 3 | Utah Royals W | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26:17 | 30 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave W | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 23:17 | 29 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns FC W | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 27:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Kansas City Current W | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23:23 | 25 |
| 7 | Orlando Pride W | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 22:21 | 23 |
| 8 | Angel City W | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22:14 | 22 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21:23 | 21 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 21:19 | 19 |
| 11 | Houston Dash W | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19:24 | 19 |
| 12 | Boston Legacy W | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18:23 | 19 |
| 13 | Bay FC W | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16:20 | 18 |
| 14 | Seattle Reign W | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 15:19 | 17 |
| 15 | Chicago Stars W | 16 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8:31 | 12 |
| 16 | Racing Louisville W | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16:27 | 8 |
Promotion - NWSL Women (Play Offs)