Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Nueve de Octubre vs Manta

Ecuador Ecuador

Copa Ecuador Estadio Modelo Alberto Spencer, Guayaquil
Nueve de Octubre Logo

Nueve de Octubre

Fri, May 22, 2026
0 - 1
08:00 PM
Manta Logo

Manta

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
(Penalty)
1' Event
(Penalty)
2' Event
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Nueve de Octubre
35%
Draws
26%
Manta
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nueve de Octubre

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Nueve de Octubre carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Nueve de Octubre a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Nueve de Octubre have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Manta, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Nueve de Octubre Clean Sheet 68%
Manta Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nueve de Octubre Manta
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 12 5
Losses 5 18
Goals Scored 1.28 0.59
Goals Conceded 0.72 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Copa Ecuador
Nueve de Octubre vs Manta
0:1
Oct 3, 2024 Serie B
Manta vs Nueve de Octubre
2:1
Aug 15, 2024 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Manta
1:0
Jul 4, 2024 Serie B
Manta vs Nueve de Octubre
1:2
Mar 13, 2024 Serie B
Nueve de Octubre vs Manta
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nueve de Octubre 77 / 100
Manta 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nueve de Octubre Manta

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nueve de Octubre Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nueve de Octubre scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Manta has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Nueve de Octubre stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Nueve de Octubre VS Manta
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Nueve de Octubre

(Home)
17 Sept
Vinotinto
1 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
12 Sept
Nueve de Octubre
3 : 1
Independiente Juniors
04 Sept
Atletico FC
2 : 2
Nueve de Octubre
28 Aug
CD Cuenca Juniors
1 : 1
Nueve de Octubre
20 Aug
San Antonio
0 : 0
Nueve de Octubre
Page 1 of 6

Manta

(Away)
12 Sept
Manta
0 : 0
Aucas
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Manta
2 : 0
Barcelona SC
22 Aug
U. Catolica
5 : 1
Manta
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
LDU Quito -
TBD -
Africando 1
Independiente Juniors 2
Leones del Norte -
TBD -
Huaquillas FC 1
Rio Aguarico 0
Aucas -
TBD -
Guaranda 0
San Antonio 1
Dep. Cuenca -
TBD -
La Union 1
Cumbaya 0
Emelec -
TBD -
U.D. Juvenil 0
Daquilema 2
Guayaquil City -
TBD -
Astillero 2
22 de Julio 1
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Dunamis 1
EL Nacional 5
Orense -
TBD -
Domingo TSA 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle -
TBD -
Primero de Mayo 0
Dep. Santo Domingo 2
Manta -
TBD -
Nazareno 0
Nueve de Octubre 4
Mushuc Runa -
TBD -
Dep. Quito 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara -
TBD -
Quito 2
CD Cuenca Juniors 3
Barcelona SC -
TBD -
Insutec 4
Club Deportivo Ibarra 3
Libertad -
TBD -
Ind. Azogues 0
LDU Portoviejo 5
Delfin -
TBD -
Banos 2
Anaconda 1
Tecnico U. -
TBD -
Juventud Italiana 2
Atletico FC 1
1/16-finals
LDU Quito 2
Independiente Juniors 1
Leones del Norte 1
Huaquillas FC 0
Aucas 3
San Antonio 0
Dep. Cuenca 0
La Union 1
Emelec 0
Daquilema 1
Guayaquil City 1
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 4
EL Nacional 1
Orense 1
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 2
Dep. Santo Domingo 0
Manta 1
Nueve de Octubre 0
Mushuc Runa 0
Gualaceo 1
Macara 1
CD Cuenca Juniors 0
Barcelona SC 4
Insutec 2
Libertad 1
LDU Portoviejo 2
Delfin 2
Banos 0
Tecnico U. 0
Juventud Italiana 2
1/8-finals
LDU Quito 6
Leones del Norte 0
Aucas 2
La Union 1
Daquilema 0
Astillero 2
U. Catolica 3
Vinotinto 2
Independiente del Valle 1
Manta 0
Gualaceo 2
Macara 1
Barcelona SC 0
LDU Portoviejo 3
Delfin 1
Juventud Italiana 0
Quarter-finals
LDU Quito 1
Aucas 0
Astillero 0
U. Catolica 1
Independiente del Valle -
Gualaceo -
LDU Portoviejo 0
Delfin 2
Semi-finals
LDU Quito -
U. Catolica -
TBD -
Delfin -
Final
TBD -
TBD -