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Nunawading City vs Wellington Phoenix

Australia Australia

Australia Cup 2025 John Ilhan Memorial Reserve (Nasiol)
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Nunawading City play Wellington Phoenix in the Australia Cup 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Nunawading City averaged 1.39 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. Wellington Phoenix averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, Nunawading City won 0, Wellington Phoenix won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 10, 2025 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.24 for Nunawading City and 1.31 for Wellington Phoenix. This points to a Wellington Phoenix double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Nunawading City
21%
Draws
45%
Wellington Phoenix
Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Wellington Phoenix

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Nunawading City picked up more points recently compared to Wellington Phoenix.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.24 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Nunawading City Clean Sheet 18%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Nunawading City Wellington Phoenix
Matches Played 23 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.39 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.60

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 10, 2025 Australia Cup
Nunawading City vs Wellington Phoenix
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Nunawading City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Wellington Phoenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Ishige H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Nunawading City 34 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Nunawading City Wellington Phoenix

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wellington Phoenix or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Nunawading City attacking → ← attacking Wellington Phoenix

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nunawading City scored in 61% of their last 23 games.

Wellington Phoenix let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Nunawading City went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Wellington Phoenix lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 42
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.60