Sport Picks
Oita Trinita vs Sagan Tosu
Japan
J2/J3 League Resonac Dome Oita, Oita 
Match Events
21'
21'
Kim Hyun-woo
30'
30'
Yuba K.
Assist: Nishizawa K.
46'
46'
Sub
Arima K. In: Isa K.
Out: Arima K.
AI Match Summary
Sagan Tosu in this J2/J3 League matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sagan Tosu.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
22%
28%
50%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Sagan Tosu
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Sagan Tosu lately — more wins on the board than Oita Trinita.
- Sagan Tosu are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Oita Trinita Clean Sheet 16%
Sagan Tosu Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Oita Trinita | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 34 | 32 |
| Wins | 14 | 17 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 17 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 1.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 J2/J3 League
Oita Trinita vs Sagan Tosu
0:1
Apr 5, 2026 J2/J3 League
Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Oita Trinita vs Sagan Tosu
0:2
Jul 12, 2025 J2 League
Sagan Tosu vs Oita Trinita
2:1
Apr 29, 2025 J2 League
Oita Trinita vs Sagan Tosu
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Oita Trinita Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
Sagan Tosu Compare
Top Goalscorer Yuba K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Oita Trinita 23 / 100
Sagan Tosu 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Oita Trinita Sagan Tosu
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick TOS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Oita Trinita scored in 71% of their last 34 outings.
These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.
Sagan Tosu's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Sagan Tosu let in goals in 56% of their last 32 matches.
Scoring Trends
Oita Trinita VS Sagan Tosu
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Oita Trinita
(Home) 07 Jun
Oita Trinita
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
30 May
Nara Club
4 : 3 Oita Trinita
24 May
Gainare Tottori
1 : 0 Oita Trinita
17 May
Oita Trinita
1 : 2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
10 May
Oita Trinita
0 : 1 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 7
07 Jun
Oita Trinita
1 : 0 Montedio Yamagata
17 May
Oita Trinita
1 : 2 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
10 May
Oita Trinita
0 : 1 Sagan Tosu
29 Apr
Oita Trinita
0 : 1 Kumamoto
11 Apr
Oita Trinita
1 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
Page 1 of 4
Sagan Tosu
(Away) 20 Jul
Sagan Tosu
7 : 1 Verspah Oita
06 Jun
Sagan Tosu
1 : 0 Shonan Bellmare
30 May
Tokushima
3 : 1 Sagan Tosu
23 May
Sagan Tosu
2 : 3 Ryukyu
16 May
Sagan Tosu
1 : 2 Renofa Yamaguchi
Page 1 of 7
30 May
Tokushima
3 : 1 Sagan Tosu
10 May
Oita Trinita
0 : 1 Sagan Tosu
29 Apr
Kagoshima United
2 : 1 Sagan Tosu
19 Apr
Kumamoto
0 : 2 Sagan Tosu
12 Apr
Giravanz Kitakyushu
0 : 1 Sagan Tosu
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 18 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 37:15 | 43 |
| 2 | Blaublitz | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 23:16 | 35 |
| 3 | Shonan Bellmare | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28:20 | 31 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 36:28 | 29 |
| 5 | SC Sagamihara | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 33:36 | 28 |
| 6 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 27:39 | 23 |
| 7 | Montedio Yamagata | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:25 | 22 |
| 8 | Tochigi City | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:35 | 21 |
| 9 | Vanraure | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 16:23 | 18 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 17 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 24:31 | 17 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kofu | 17 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 20:12 | 33 |
| 2 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 28:22 | 31 |
| 3 | Iwaki | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 26:20 | 31 |
| 4 | Omiya Ardija | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 39:29 | 30 |
| 5 | Fujieda MYFC | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 24:23 | 30 |
| 6 | Gifu | 17 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 23:25 | 27 |
| 7 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 33:25 | 26 |
| 8 | Iwata | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 20:25 | 25 |
| 9 | Fukushima United | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 30:43 | 18 |
| 10 | Nagano Parceiro | 18 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 17:36 | 16 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toyama | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 40:26 | 38 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 24:19 | 35 |
| 3 | Tokushima | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 38:23 | 32 |
| 4 | Kochi United | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 25:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Ehime | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 26:20 | 28 |
| 6 | Kanazawa | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 20:23 | 27 |
| 7 | Nara Club | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 27:36 | 21 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 18:23 | 20 |
| 9 | Imabari | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15:21 | 20 |
| 10 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 15:34 | 19 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 35:13 | 47 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 27:16 | 33 |
| 3 | Sagan Tosu | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:18 | 32 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 27:24 | 29 |
| 5 | Kumamoto | 18 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 21:21 | 27 |
| 6 | Gainare Tottori | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 24:25 | 27 |
| 7 | Oita Trinita | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 19:20 | 22 |
| 8 | Reilac Shiga | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 16:29 | 21 |
| 9 | Ryukyu | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 17:28 | 17 |
| 10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 18 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 17:35 | 15 |
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J2/J3 League (Placement Play Offs)
