Sport Picks
Oliveirense vs Penafiel
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Osorio, Oliveira de Azemeis 
Match Events
9'
9'
Lopes A.
Assist: Silva J.
49'
49'
Reko
54'
54'
Miguel J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 game between Oliveirense and Penafiel finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Oliveirense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
20%
10%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Oliveirense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Penafiel come out ahead of Oliveirense on wins alone.
- Model gives Oliveirense a 90% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Oliveirense Clean Sheet 68%
Penafiel Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Oliveirense | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 7 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 25, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Penafiel
2:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Oliveirense
0:0
Jan 20, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Oliveirense vs Penafiel
2:2
Aug 11, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Oliveirense
4:3
Feb 3, 2024 Liga Portugal 2
Penafiel vs Oliveirense
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Oliveirense Compare
Top Goalscorer Lopes A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Silva B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Penafiel Compare
Top Goalscorer Sery J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Oliveirense 95 / 100
Penafiel 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Oliveirense Penafiel
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick OLI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Oliveirense scored in 61% of their last 28 games.
Penafiel's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.
Oliveirense has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Oliveirense VS Penafiel
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Oliveirense
(Home) 17 May
Oliveirense
1 : 5 FC Felgueiras
09 May
Feirense
1 : 2 Oliveirense
02 May
Oliveirense
0 : 0 Lusitania FC
27 Apr
Chaves
2 : 1 Oliveirense
22 Apr
Oliveirense
3 : 0 Benfica B
Page 1 of 6
17 May
Oliveirense
1 : 5 FC Felgueiras
02 May
Oliveirense
0 : 0 Lusitania FC
22 Apr
Oliveirense
3 : 0 Benfica B
03 Apr
Oliveirense
1 : 2 Portimonense
07 Mar
Oliveirense
0 : 3 Torreense
Page 1 of 3
Penafiel
(Away) 01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2 Braga B
01 Aug
Penafiel
0 : 2 Gil Vicente
24 Jul
Penafiel
0 : 2 Leganes
18 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0 Penafiel
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
5 : 0 Penafiel
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Famalicao
0 : 0 Penafiel
18 Jul
Vitoria Guimaraes
5 : 0 Penafiel
17 May
Pacos Ferreira
2 : 1 Penafiel
04 May
Torreense
3 : 2 Penafiel
18 Apr
Leiria
4 : 2 Penafiel
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 50:29 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 58:33 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 46:33 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 39:40 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:42 | 51 |
| 6 | Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52:46 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixoes | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 46:55 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 37:40 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 43:44 | 44 |
| 11 | FC Felgueiras | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 34:38 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitania FC | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 44:52 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 41:34 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37:39 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 39:49 | 40 |
| 16 | SC Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 31:37 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 34:48 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:49 | 34 |
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Main)
