Sport Picks

Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Tajonar Facilities Stadium

Guadalajara

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Osasuna B play Guadalajara in the Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Osasuna B averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Guadalajara averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. In past meetings, Osasuna B won 2, Guadalajara won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 29, 2026 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Osasuna B and 1.13 for Guadalajara. This points to a Guadalajara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

Osasuna B

16%

Draws

42%

Guadalajara

Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Guadalajara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / Medium Confidence

Osasuna B picked up more points recently compared to Guadalajara.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 63%

Over 2.5 Goals 34%

Over 3.5 Goals 20%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

Osasuna B Clean Sheet 21%

Guadalajara Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 57%

Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Osasuna B	Guadalajara
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	8	8
Draws	6	8
Losses	16	14
Goals Scored	0.73	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.57
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1

Osasuna B vs Guadalajara

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 2 - 2

4:3

Dec 7, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1

Guadalajara vs Osasuna B

Possession: 58% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

May 18, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 2

Guadalajara vs Osasuna B

Possession: 42% - 43% Cards: 3 - 1

0:4

Jan 5, 2008 Segunda RFEF - Group 2

Osasuna B vs Guadalajara

Possession: 47% - 50% Cards: 1 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Osasuna B Compare

Top Goalscorer Auria M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lumbreras C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Guadalajara Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez U.

3 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Osasuna B 42 / 100

Guadalajara 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Osasuna B Guadalajara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guadalajara or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23.5%

2.94

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +21.4%

3.57

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Osasuna B attacking → ← attacking Guadalajara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Osasuna B scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Guadalajara let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Osasuna B went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Guadalajara lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 32

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tenerife	38	22	10	6	62:24	76
2	Celta Vigo B	38	18	11	9	61:48	65
3	Zamora	38	17	10	11	53:42	61
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43:33	60
5	Real Madrid B	38	16	10	12	61:52	58
6	Pontevedra	38	14	16	8	49:31	58
7	Barakaldo	38	15	13	10	51:38	58
8	Unionistas de Salamanca	38	15	11	12	53:49	56
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36:40	53
10	AD Merida	38	14	10	14	47:53	52
11	Arenas Getxo	38	15	7	16	46:55	52
12	Racing Club Ferrol	38	13	10	15	41:47	49
13	Ath Bilbao B	38	13	10	15	38:46	49
14	Real Aviles	38	11	11	16	55:67	44
15	Cacereno	38	10	14	14	42:49	44
16	CF Talavera	38	11	10	17	38:47	43
17	Ourense CF	38	10	13	15	44:47	43
18	Guadalajara	38	10	11	17	44:58	41
19	Osasuna B	38	10	10	18	28:42	40
20	Arenteiro	38	6	10	22	29:53	28