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Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen

Germany Germany

DFB Pokal 2025/2026 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
Paderborn Logo

Paderborn

Wed, Oct 29, 2025
2 - 4
05:00 PM
Bayer Leverkusen Logo

Bayer Leverkusen

Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Garcia A.
46'
Sub
Ben Seghir E. In: Poku E.
Out: Ben Seghir E.
46'
Sub
Schick P. In: Kofane C.
Out: Schick P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-4, with Bayer Leverkusen advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Paderborn
30%
Draws
47%
Bayer Leverkusen
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bayer Leverkusen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Paderborn have managed 1.83 goals a game lately — Bayer Leverkusen are scoring more at 2.21.
  • Win probability leans Bayer Leverkusen's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Bayer Leverkusen, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Bayer Leverkusen have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 12%
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paderborn Bayer Leverkusen
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.83 2.21
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.89 1.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 29, 2025 DFB Pokal
Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen
2:4
Dec 6, 2023 DFB Pokal
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn
3:1
Jul 21, 2023 Club Friendly
Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen
2:1
Jan 19, 2020 Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Bayer Leverkusen
1:4
Oct 29, 2019 DFB Pokal
Bayer Leverkusen vs Paderborn
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paderborn Compare

Top Goalscorer Marino S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Michel S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.45

Bayer Leverkusen Compare

Top Goalscorer Grimaldo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Quansah J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.6
Avg xA / game 0.98

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paderborn 10 / 100
Bayer Leverkusen 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paderborn Bayer Leverkusen

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bayer Leverkusen Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Paderborn scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Bayer Leverkusen let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Paderborn went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paderborn VS Bayer Leverkusen
1.14 Goals Scored 2.38
1.14 Goals Conceded 0.63
57% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 88%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paderborn

(Home)
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Phonix Lubeck
2 : 4
Paderborn
08 Aug
Werder Bremen
2 : 2
Paderborn
Page 1 of 6

Bayer Leverkusen

(Away)
16 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 0
Celje
12 Sept
Augsburg
2 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
05 Sept
Bayer Leverkusen
4 : 0
Union Berlin
29 Aug
Elversberg
3 : 2
Bayer Leverkusen
22 Aug
Wehen
0 : 4
Bayer Leverkusen
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Engers 0
Eintracht Frankfurt 5
RW Essen 0
Dortmund 1
FC Viktoria Koln 1
Paderborn 3
Sonnenhof Grossaspach 0
Bayer Leverkusen 4
Delmenhorst 2
B. Monchengladbach 3
Meuselwitz 0
Karlsruher 5
Eintracht Norderstedt 0
St. Pauli 1
Hansa Rostock 0
Hoffenheim 4
Gutersloh 0
Union Berlin 5
Arminia Bielefeld 1
Werder Bremen 0
Regensburg 1
1. FC Koln 2
Wehen 2
Bayern Munich 3
Energie Cottbus 1
Hannover 0
Sandhausen 2
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 4
Nurnberg 3
Saarbrucken 1
Magdeburg 3
Bahlinger 0
Heidenheim 5
Pirmasens 1
Hamburger 2
Hemelingen 0
Wolfsburg 9
FC 08 Homburg 0
Holstein Kiel 2
Hallescher 0
Augsburg 2
BFC Dynamo 1
Bochum 3
Dresden 0
Mainz 1
Braunschweig 4
VfB Stuttgart 5
Preussen Munster 0
Hertha Berlin 1
Ulm 0
Elversberg 1
Lohne 0
Greuther Furth 2
Rsv Eintracht 0
Kaiserslautern 7
1. FC Schweinfurt 2
Dusseldorf 4
Lotte 0
Freiburg 2
Lubeck 1
Darmstadt 2
Lokomotive Leipzig 0
Schalke 1
1/16-finals
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Dortmund 2
Paderborn 2
Bayer Leverkusen 4
B. Monchengladbach 3
Karlsruher 1
St. Pauli 3
Hoffenheim 2
Union Berlin 2
Arminia Bielefeld 1
1. FC Koln 1
Bayern Munich 4
Energie Cottbus 1
RB Leipzig 4
Illertissen 0
Magdeburg 3
Heidenheim 0
Hamburger 1
Wolfsburg 0
Holstein Kiel 1
Augsburg 0
Bochum 1
Mainz 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 3
Elversberg 0
Greuther Furth 0
Kaiserslautern 1
Dusseldorf 1
Freiburg 3
Darmstadt 4
Schalke 0
1/8-finals
Dortmund 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1
B. Monchengladbach 1
St. Pauli 2
Union Berlin 2
Bayern Munich 3
RB Leipzig 3
Magdeburg 1
Hamburger 1
Holstein Kiel 2
Bochum 0
VfB Stuttgart 2
Hertha Berlin 6
Kaiserslautern 1
Freiburg 2
Darmstadt 0
Quarter-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 3
St. Pauli 0
Bayern Munich 2
RB Leipzig 0
Holstein Kiel 0
VfB Stuttgart 3
Hertha Berlin 1
Freiburg 2
Semi-finals
Bayer Leverkusen 0
Bayern Munich 2
VfB Stuttgart 2
Freiburg 1
Final
Bayern Munich 3
VfB Stuttgart 0