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Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
Paduano EC Logo

Paduano EC

0 - 1
FT
Nova Cidade Logo

Nova Cidade

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
de Souza Junior L.
90'
Dias P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Nova Cidade in this Carioca B1 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nova Cidade.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Paduano EC
20%
Draws
40%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paduano EC lately — more wins on the board than Nova Cidade.
  • Model gives Paduano EC a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 68%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Nova Cidade
Matches Played 26 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 4 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.04 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
5:2
Oct 26, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer de Souza Junior L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 59 / 100
Nova Cidade 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paduano EC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Paduano EC found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (26 games).

Nova Cidade let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Solid form: Paduano EC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Nova Cidade
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
13 Sept
Serra Macaense
1 : 2
Paduano EC
06 Sept
Paduano EC
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RJ
30 Aug
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
Paduano EC
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
Page 1 of 6

Nova Cidade

(Away)
19 Sept
Niteroiense
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
12 Sept
Nova Cidade
2 : 2
Sao Cristovao
05 Sept
Duque de Caxias
3 : 0
Nova Cidade
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artsul 8 5 1 2 10:5 16
2 Paduano EC 8 5 1 2 6:3 16
3 Sao Goncalo 8 3 4 1 10:2 13
4 Perolas Negras 8 3 2 3 8:9 11
5 Friburguense 8 2 4 2 5:4 10
6 Nova Cidade 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
7 Sao Cristovao 8 2 1 5 3:9 7
8 Serrano FC 8 1 3 4 5:9 6
9 Belford Roxo 8 0 6 2 5:10 6
Promotion - Carioca B1 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2024 (Main)