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Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
de Souza Junior L.
90'
Dias P.

AI Match Summary

Nova Cidade in this Carioca B1 2024 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nova Cidade.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Paduano EC
11%
Draws
80%
Nova Cidade
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Nova Cidade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Nova Cidade at 0.63 per game, Paduano EC at 0.5.
  • Model gives Nova Cidade a 80% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Paduano EC Clean Sheet 23%
Nova Cidade Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paduano EC Nova Cidade
Matches Played 22 30
Wins 9 9
Draws 3 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 0.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
5:2
Oct 26, 2024 Carioca B1
Paduano EC vs Nova Cidade
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paduano EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Nova Cidade Compare

Top Goalscorer de Souza Junior L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paduano EC 13 / 100
Nova Cidade 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paduano EC Nova Cidade

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NOV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Nova Cidade conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Paduano EC scored in 59% of their last 22 games.

Solid form: Paduano EC remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paduano EC VS Nova Cidade
0.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 25%
38% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Paduano EC

(Home)
08 Nov
Niteroiense
5 : 1
Paduano EC
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Sao Cristovao
2 : 0
Paduano EC
25 Oct
Duque de Caxias
2 : 1
Paduano EC
18 Oct
Paduano EC
0 : 1
Campo Grande
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Nova Cidade

(Away)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Campo Grande
01 Nov
Duque de Caxias
2 : 2
Nova Cidade
25 Oct
Bonsucesso
1 : 0
Nova Cidade
18 Oct
Nova Cidade
0 : 0
Artsul
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Artsul851210:516
2Paduano EC85126:316
3Sao Goncalo834110:213
4Perolas Negras83238:911
5Friburguense82425:410
6Nova Cidade824210:1110
7Sao Cristovao82153:97
8Serrano FC81345:96
9Belford Roxo80625:106
Promotion - Carioca B1 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2024 (Main)