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Paide Linnameeskond U21 vs FC Alliance

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paide Linnameeskond U21 play FC Alliance in the Esiliiga 2023. Paide Linnameeskond U21 are favorites here. Recently, Paide Linnameeskond U21 averaged 2.03 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. FC Alliance averaged 1.23 goals scored and 3.43 conceded. In past meetings, Paide Linnameeskond U21 won 3, FC Alliance won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 1, 2023 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.54 for Paide Linnameeskond U21 and 1.31 for FC Alliance. This points to a Paide Linnameeskond U21 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Paide Linnameeskond U21
15%
Draws
21%
FC Alliance
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Paide Linnameeskond U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

90% / Very High Confidence
  • Paide Linnameeskond U21 picked up more points recently compared to FC Alliance.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 76%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 90%
Over 2.5 Goals 76%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Paide Linnameeskond U21 Clean Sheet 18%
FC Alliance Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 81%
Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paide Linnameeskond U21 FC Alliance
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 11 4
Draws 8 2
Losses 14 24
Goals Scored 2.03 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.7 3.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2023 Esiliiga
Paide Linnameeskond U21 vs FC Alliance
1:3
Aug 5, 2023 Esiliiga
FC Alliance vs Paide Linnameeskond U21
2:5
May 14, 2023 Esiliiga
FC Alliance vs Paide Linnameeskond U21
1:7
Mar 4, 2023 Esiliiga
Paide Linnameeskond U21 vs FC Alliance
2:3
Jan 29, 2023 Club Friendly
FC Alliance vs Paide Linnameeskond U21
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paide Linnameeskond U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Riiberg H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Usar S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

FC Alliance Compare

Top Goalscorer Kardava R.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paide Linnameeskond U21 61 / 100
FC Alliance 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paide Linnameeskond U21 FC Alliance

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paide Linnameeskond U21 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Paide Linnameeskond U21 & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.6%
1.79
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.7%
1.43
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Paide Linnameeskond U21 attacking → ← attacking FC Alliance

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paide Linnameeskond U21 scored in 76% of their last 33 games.

FC Alliance let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.80 goals.

Paide Linnameeskond U21 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Alliance lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 14
1.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nomme Utd362862114:2990
2Viimsi JK36218767:3571
3Flora Tallinn U21362231186:5369
4Levadia U21361691157:4657
5Tabasalu361811781:7055
6FC Tallinn361641672:6552
7Paide Linnameeskond U21361251966:8241
8Elva361242045:7540
9Legion36562537:9721
10FC Alliance36622850:12320